Gale Warning 255, NWS Juneau, AK

501 
FZAK51 PAJK 190002
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-191400-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF TUE
NIGHT...THEN REACH THE NE GULF WED.  

$$

PKZ011-191400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT LATE. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-191400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE EVENING. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-191400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 
4 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-191400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-191400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
LATE. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...
THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-191400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE TO 30 KT LATE. STRONGEST
WINDS SOUTH OF DOUGLAS ISLAND LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT
LATE. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF DOUGLAS ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 
5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-191400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-191400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 5 FT LATE...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN LATE.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE MORNING...
THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-191400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
FT. RAIN LATE.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS LATE.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-191400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN
LATE.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-191400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
420 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...A low pressure trof over the eastern gulf will
drift onshore tonight. Another trof will move into the eastern
gulf Tue. A developing low will move NE into the SW gulf by late
Tue. Models were in general agreement on the main features and
close to previous forecast, so did not make any significant
changes to the pressures/winds especially over the gulf.

Main forecast concerns will be precip potential, TSTM potential,
and winds. A fairly organized band of showers is over the far eastern
gulf and much of the panhandle this afternoon, and will continue
moving NE across the area tonight. The southern area has only a
few showers right now, but they will see more showers move in late
tonight as second trof approaches the area. The NE gulf coast will
see shower activity diminish overnight tonight as shortwave
ridging moves in aloft...and Tue will likely see scattered showers
at most in that area. The far N panhandle should see any snow
change to rain by late this afternoon in the lower elevations as
S-SE low level flow increases, so will allow the winter weather
advy for zones 18 and 19 to expire at 4 pm.

Best threat for TSTMS will be along the trofs moving in and mainly
over the water. Think bulk of TSTMS will be done with first trof
by time evening forecast goes out so will not mention in new
forecast for this evening. Late tonight and Tue though, second
trof will have some TSTM potential over the far SE gulf along axis
of greatest instability. Some of these may reach the far southern
coast before they dissipate by late Tue afternoon with trof moving
onshore.

Strongest winds tonight will be over the inner channels with 15-25
KT S-SE winds ahead of the first trof. These winds will diminish
slowly tonight. They may pick up some on Tue with second trof but
think they will remain below SCA levels. Will have generally
15-25 KT winds over the E gulf with strongest winds along and
ahead of the trofs. Over the far SW outer waters, 25-30 KT SE
winds will move in late Tue afternoon in response to approaching
low and occluded front. Marine zone 52 will also see winds pick up
to around 25 KT late in the day.

.LONG TERM...A gale force front will move across the eastern gulf
Tuesday night. Expect E-SE winds along the outer coast to
increase through the night with gusts of 35-45mph continuing
through Wednesday morning. Most inner channels will increase to
small craft level with this front and some, like Cross Sound and
Clarence Strait to gale force. Rain will be moderate as it moves
through on Wednesday then transition to showers behind the main
front. Have continued with a slight chance of thunderstorms over
the gulf.

Main change to the forecast was adjusting position of a low
center that develops along the Tue night/Wed front. 12z models
came into better agreement on this feature today, so used a blend
of the NAM/ECMWF/GFS. Models differ more and more with each day
of the extended forecast on the timing/placement of troughs moving
through, but they all agree that it will be an active weather
week, especially compared to the first half of the month.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031-033-034-036-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ022-041>043-051.
&&

RWT/Ferrin

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