Gale Warning 244, NWS Juneau, AK

658 
FZAK67 PAJK 182336
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-191400-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF TUE
NIGHT...THEN REACH THE NE GULF WED.  

$$

PKZ310-191400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

516 
FZAK67 PAJK 191131
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-200100-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE AND WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. A GALE FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-200100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SW
SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

189 
FZAK67 PAJK 192325
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-201400-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH THU. A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE
NE INTO THE FAR SE GULF LATE THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-201400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL SHIFTING TO THE SW.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SW SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
420 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...A low pressure trof over the eastern gulf will
drift onshore tonight. Another trof will move into the eastern
gulf Tue. A developing low will move NE into the SW gulf by late
Tue. Models were in general agreement on the main features and
close to previous forecast, so did not make any significant
changes to the pressures/winds especially over the gulf.

Main forecast concerns will be precip potential, TSTM potential,
and winds. A fairly organized band of showers is over the far eastern
gulf and much of the panhandle this afternoon, and will continue
moving NE across the area tonight. The southern area has only a
few showers right now, but they will see more showers move in late
tonight as second trof approaches the area. The NE gulf coast will
see shower activity diminish overnight tonight as shortwave
ridging moves in aloft...and Tue will likely see scattered showers
at most in that area. The far N panhandle should see any snow
change to rain by late this afternoon in the lower elevations as
S-SE low level flow increases, so will allow the winter weather
advy for zones 18 and 19 to expire at 4 pm.

Best threat for TSTMS will be along the trofs moving in and mainly
over the water. Think bulk of TSTMS will be done with first trof
by time evening forecast goes out so will not mention in new
forecast for this evening. Late tonight and Tue though, second
trof will have some TSTM potential over the far SE gulf along axis
of greatest instability. Some of these may reach the far southern
coast before they dissipate by late Tue afternoon with trof moving
onshore.

Strongest winds tonight will be over the inner channels with 15-25
KT S-SE winds ahead of the first trof. These winds will diminish
slowly tonight. They may pick up some on Tue with second trof but
think they will remain below SCA levels. Will have generally
15-25 KT winds over the E gulf with strongest winds along and
ahead of the trofs. Over the far SW outer waters, 25-30 KT SE
winds will move in late Tue afternoon in response to approaching
low and occluded front. Marine zone 52 will also see winds pick up
to around 25 KT late in the day.

.LONG TERM...A gale force front will move across the eastern gulf
Tuesday night. Expect E-SE winds along the outer coast to
increase through the night with gusts of 35-45mph continuing
through Wednesday morning. Most inner channels will increase to
small craft level with this front and some, like Cross Sound and
Clarence Strait to gale force. Rain will be moderate as it moves
through on Wednesday then transition to showers behind the main
front. Have continued with a slight chance of thunderstorms over
the gulf.

Main change to the forecast was adjusting position of a low
center that develops along the Tue night/Wed front. 12z models
came into better agreement on this feature today, so used a blend
of the NAM/ECMWF/GFS. Models differ more and more with each day
of the extended forecast on the timing/placement of troughs moving
through, but they all agree that it will be an active weather
week, especially compared to the first half of the month.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031-033-034-036-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ022-041>043-051.
&&

RWT/Ferrin

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