Gale Warning 203, NWS Juneau, AK

583 
FZAK51 PAJK 171155
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-180100-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
FRONTAL BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE SE ON WED. 

$$

PKZ011-180100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING W 10 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-180100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.WED NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT OR
LESS. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-180100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT THEN
SUBSIDING.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-180100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-180100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-180100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-180100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-180100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-180100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-180100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-180100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
200 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A 984 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR 48N 155W AT
18Z. A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE FROM A 1028
MB HIGH OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONE 310 BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
AS THE LOW APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24-HRS. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AK PANHANDLE SOUTHERN
COAST NEAR THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION LATE TODAY.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS PACKAGE WERE GETTING THE FINE
DETAILS PINNED DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ADJUSTING FOR NEWER MODEL
DATA/OBSERVATION TRENDS. THE SPIRIT OF THE INHERITED GOING
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. AS SUCH, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE GIVEN THIS, GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY, AND GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH THE HANDLING OF FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
ABOUT 72-HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED
ON PRECIPITATION AND WINDS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN TERMS OF
A REPRIEVE THE REST OF TODAY AS IT RELATES TO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STEADY RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND EAST. CATEGORICAL POPS
WERE USED OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW REACHES ABOUT 52N 148W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
TONIGHT FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
FROM CAPE DECISION TO ICY CAPE. MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE INNER CHANNELS SUBSEQUENTLY.

SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW IN MUCH OF THE MARINE
ZONES. OTHERWISE, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL WITH HIGH POPS IN PLACE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUAD OF MARINE ZONE 310 BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRENDING DOWN ACROSS
THE CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA. THE LOW WILL
BE WEAKENING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS TO 1002
MB AND MOVES TO THE CENTER OF MARINE ZONE 310.

.LONG TERM...THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE
WEAKENED TO AROUND 1012 MB AND THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION. A DRYING TREND WILL
THEN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING
COASTAL AREA. ELSEWHERE, NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL BECOMING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND WILL THEN BECOME A TROUGH BY WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA WED NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE DRYING TREND AND
THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-031>035-053.
&&

ET

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