Gale Warning 202, NWS Juneau, AK

284 
FZAK52 PAJK 171145
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
FRONTAL BANDS ASSOC WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE SE ON WED. 

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. SW
SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
SW SWELL.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. SW
SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS OUT
OF CROSS SOUND IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. S
SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

746 
FZAK52 PAJK 172331
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-181400-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEST OF CAPE EDGECOMBE
TUE NIGHT. FRONTAL BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. THE LOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFF TO THE SE THROUGH WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-181400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 10 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-181400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-181400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 15
FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-181400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT
LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-181400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE
EVENING.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
200 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A 984 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR 48N 155W AT
18Z. A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE FROM A 1028
MB HIGH OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONE 310 BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
AS THE LOW APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24-HRS. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AK PANHANDLE SOUTHERN
COAST NEAR THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION LATE TODAY.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS PACKAGE WERE GETTING THE FINE
DETAILS PINNED DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ADJUSTING FOR NEWER MODEL
DATA/OBSERVATION TRENDS. THE SPIRIT OF THE INHERITED GOING
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. AS SUCH, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE GIVEN THIS, GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY, AND GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH THE HANDLING OF FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
ABOUT 72-HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED
ON PRECIPITATION AND WINDS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN TERMS OF
A REPRIEVE THE REST OF TODAY AS IT RELATES TO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STEADY RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND EAST. CATEGORICAL POPS
WERE USED OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW REACHES ABOUT 52N 148W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
TONIGHT FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
FROM CAPE DECISION TO ICY CAPE. MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE INNER CHANNELS SUBSEQUENTLY.

SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW IN MUCH OF THE MARINE
ZONES. OTHERWISE, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL WITH HIGH POPS IN PLACE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUAD OF MARINE ZONE 310 BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRENDING DOWN ACROSS
THE CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA. THE LOW WILL
BE WEAKENING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS TO 1002
MB AND MOVES TO THE CENTER OF MARINE ZONE 310.

.LONG TERM...THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE
WEAKENED TO AROUND 1012 MB AND THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION. A DRYING TREND WILL
THEN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING
COASTAL AREA. ELSEWHERE, NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL BECOMING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND WILL THEN BECOME A TROUGH BY WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA WED NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE DRYING TREND AND
THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-031>035-053.
&&

ET

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