Gale Warning 188, NWS Juneau, AK

277 
FZAK52 PAJK 292342
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-301400-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT TO THE
EAST TONIGHT. A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF FRI NIGHT AND LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY AND STALL
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. 

$$

PKZ041-301400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-301400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING
TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-301400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING
TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-301400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING
TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-301400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
13 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE.
SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...WET AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE FRONT
STRETCHES FROM HAIDA GWAII ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO AROUND
MIDDLETON ISLAND. BUOY 46205 HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO A SW WIND AS
OF NOON. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AS OF 1 PM, RANGING FROM AROUND A
HALF OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEAR YAKUTAT TO
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. WINDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN CLARENCE STRAIT AND IN THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO
CANADA THIS EVENING TAKING ITS RAIN AND WIND WITH IT. MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH WIND
SWITCHING TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. BEHIND THE FRONT, THE SHOWERS
WILL NOT TAPER OFF VERY FAST AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH. THESE TROUGHS WILL STRENGTHEN AND ORGANIZE THE SHOWERS
RESULTING IN TWO ORGANIZED BANDS OF RAIN MOVING THOUGH THE AREA.
THE FIRST IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH FANFARE FOR THIS FEATURE
EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS LINGERING AND SOME BRIEF BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE SECOND, AND STRONGER OF THE TWO, WILL
ARRIVE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AS THE
DIMINISHING SHOWERS ON FRI WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
FREQUENCY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON BUT
THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KT IN LYNN
CANAL.

AS FOR MARINE CONDITIONS, PERSISTENT SW FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL
KEEP A HIGH SW SWELL GOING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES DUE TO SEAS REMAIN UP FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE GULF AS SEAS REMAIN AT AROUND 9 TO 11 FT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO
MAINLY USED SOME NAM AND GFS FOR NEEDED UPDATES TODAY. MAIN
CHANGES WERE FOR POPS AND QPF TO TRY AND GET THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES FLESHED OUT. OTHERWISE MOST OTHER CHANGES
WERE MINOR.

.LONG TERM...MADE MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FRI NIGHT INTO MON
PERIODS. DID SPEED UP THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP FROM THE STRONG
FRONT BY ABOUT 3 HRS FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE
FAIRLY HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN THE DEEP UPPER
TROF AND +3 STANDARD DEVIATION PRECIP WATER VALUES. APPEARS THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR E AS THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS SSWWD INTO
THE SE GULF SAT NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. MODELS STILL TRYING TO
RESOLVE DIFFERENCES ON LOW PRESSURE WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE N ALONG
THE FRONT FOR LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. ENDED UP USING BLEND OF THE
12Z ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS FEATURE TO MAINTAIN
TRACK CONTINUITY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURES. MODELS
ALSO DIFFER ON HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL EXIT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ENDED UP USING WPC TO HANDLE MON NIGHT ONWARD.

AS FAR AS EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODEL TREND
SEEMED TO BE UPWARD ON QPF DURING THIS TIME. DID BLEND OF
GFS/EC/GEM TO HANDLE RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE 3+
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE FOR LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DEEPER AND
FURTHER WEST TRACK WOULD SWING THE HEAVIER PRECIP BACK TO THE N
MORE QUICKLY AND EVEN POTENTIALLY DIMINISH PRECIP SOMEWHAT OVER
THE FAR SERN AREA...WITH THE WEAKER AND MORE E TRACK MAINTAINING
PRECIP AREA PRETTY MUCH OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
LITTLE IN WAY OF DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE S. WINDS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THIS WAVE AS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST GALE
FORCE WINDS EXISTS WITH IT. DID UPDATE THE SPS ABOUT THIS UPCOMING
STORM WITH NO CHANGES IN THE WORDING NEEDED.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PRECIP
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE BUILDING LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MODELS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THIS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-053.
&&

EAL/RWT

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