Gale Warning 172, NWS Juneau, AK

686 
FZAK67 PAJK 292342
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-301400-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT TO THE
EAST TONIGHT. A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF FRI NIGHT AND LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY AND STALL
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. 

$$

PKZ310-301400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

391 
FZAK67 PAJK 301118
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-010100-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-010100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...WINDS LIGHT INCREASING TO W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

411 
FZAK67 PAJK 302305
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-011400-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE ALASKA AND STALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT N SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE N ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. 

$$

PKZ310-011400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...WINDS LIGHT INCREASING TO W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...WET AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A
GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE FRONT
STRETCHES FROM HAIDA GWAII ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO AROUND
MIDDLETON ISLAND. BUOY 46205 HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO A SW WIND AS
OF NOON. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AS OF 1 PM, RANGING FROM AROUND A
HALF OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEAR YAKUTAT TO
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. WINDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN CLARENCE STRAIT AND IN THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO
CANADA THIS EVENING TAKING ITS RAIN AND WIND WITH IT. MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH WIND
SWITCHING TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. BEHIND THE FRONT, THE SHOWERS
WILL NOT TAPER OFF VERY FAST AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH. THESE TROUGHS WILL STRENGTHEN AND ORGANIZE THE SHOWERS
RESULTING IN TWO ORGANIZED BANDS OF RAIN MOVING THOUGH THE AREA.
THE FIRST IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH FANFARE FOR THIS FEATURE
EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS LINGERING AND SOME BRIEF BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE SECOND, AND STRONGER OF THE TWO, WILL
ARRIVE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AS THE
DIMINISHING SHOWERS ON FRI WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
FREQUENCY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON BUT
THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KT IN LYNN
CANAL.

AS FOR MARINE CONDITIONS, PERSISTENT SW FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL
KEEP A HIGH SW SWELL GOING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES DUE TO SEAS REMAIN UP FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE GULF AS SEAS REMAIN AT AROUND 9 TO 11 FT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO
MAINLY USED SOME NAM AND GFS FOR NEEDED UPDATES TODAY. MAIN
CHANGES WERE FOR POPS AND QPF TO TRY AND GET THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES FLESHED OUT. OTHERWISE MOST OTHER CHANGES
WERE MINOR.

.LONG TERM...MADE MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FRI NIGHT INTO MON
PERIODS. DID SPEED UP THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP FROM THE STRONG
FRONT BY ABOUT 3 HRS FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE
FAIRLY HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN THE DEEP UPPER
TROF AND +3 STANDARD DEVIATION PRECIP WATER VALUES. APPEARS THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR E AS THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS SSWWD INTO
THE SE GULF SAT NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. MODELS STILL TRYING TO
RESOLVE DIFFERENCES ON LOW PRESSURE WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE N ALONG
THE FRONT FOR LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. ENDED UP USING BLEND OF THE
12Z ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS FEATURE TO MAINTAIN
TRACK CONTINUITY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURES. MODELS
ALSO DIFFER ON HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL EXIT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ENDED UP USING WPC TO HANDLE MON NIGHT ONWARD.

AS FAR AS EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM...MODEL TREND
SEEMED TO BE UPWARD ON QPF DURING THIS TIME. DID BLEND OF
GFS/EC/GEM TO HANDLE RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE 3+
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE FOR LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DEEPER AND
FURTHER WEST TRACK WOULD SWING THE HEAVIER PRECIP BACK TO THE N
MORE QUICKLY AND EVEN POTENTIALLY DIMINISH PRECIP SOMEWHAT OVER
THE FAR SERN AREA...WITH THE WEAKER AND MORE E TRACK MAINTAINING
PRECIP AREA PRETTY MUCH OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
LITTLE IN WAY OF DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE S. WINDS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THIS WAVE AS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST GALE
FORCE WINDS EXISTS WITH IT. DID UPDATE THE SPS ABOUT THIS UPCOMING
STORM WITH NO CHANGES IN THE WORDING NEEDED.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PRECIP
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE BUILDING LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MODELS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THIS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-053.
&&

EAL/RWT

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