Gale Warning 156, NWS Juneau, AK

425 
FZAK52 PAJK 081228
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-090100-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A MID 960 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SPREADS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-090100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT.
RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING
TO 22 FT LATE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-090100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT.
RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-090100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO
19 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-090100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE.
RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-090100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE.
RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...A LOW DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
GET DISPLACED NORTH DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. RAIN AND A FEW AREAS OF LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AS THE REMAINS ARE MOVED THROUGH BY
THE NEXT SYSTEM. STILL LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE CANAL ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE
NORTH TOO.

THE WINDS THAT WERE GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH MID DAY HAVE LET OFF AS THE LOW WEAKENED AND
MOVED NORTHWARD...SO HAVE LET THE STRONG WIND HEADLINES EXPIRE.

THE INCOMING FRONT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WIND WITH A BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT THE RAIN
BE IN A NARROW BAND AND BE JUST REACHING PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

USED A NAM AND NAM GFS BLEND FOR THE WINDS... AND NAM FOR THE QPF
FORECAST...AS PREFERRED THE LOOK OF THAT QPF FOOTPRINT COMPARED
TO THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE PRINCE OF WALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF ON TUESDAY WILL SET
UP A RELATED SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND IT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. SOME
LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE CORE OF THE UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH
OF THE COMMA CLOUD, AND THUS WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN GULF
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS RIDGING BUILDS
WESTWARD FROM INTERIOR BC. THIS RIDGING WILL APPEAR IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE THAT ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE WILL SWING
FARTHER EAST INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THUS FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON
THURSDAY OF WEATHER BEING DRY. THIS DRY WEATHER COULD EXTEND
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE REPRESENTED, BUT
GIVEN THAT THIS OCCURS ON DAY 3 WE NEEDED TO HEDGE WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT...EVEN AS THE STRONGER ENERGY PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...A RELATED FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE TO BRING MAINLY RAIN ONCE AGAIN. WHILE MODELS
ATTEMPT TO COME TO A CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND, IT APPEARS TO
SAFE TO NOTE THAT A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF
WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, AND THAT
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN INCREASES THE FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER
COASTWARD ONE TRAVELS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR LOCAL TWEAKS OF WINDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SYNOPTIC NORTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
FEATURE WELL TO THE SOUTH WERE INCREASED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH AND A STRONGER
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO SUPPORT ANOTHER OUTFLOW EVENT FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTH. BUT AT THIS POINT WE DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIR MASS.

WE USED NAM/GFS FOR EDITS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH EC/GFS FOR THURSDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES OR NONE AT ALL
PROVIDED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033>036-051-052.
&&

BEZENEK/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU