Gale Warning 139, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...A LOW DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
GET DISPLACED NORTH DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. RAIN AND A FEW AREAS OF LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AS THE REMAINS ARE MOVED THROUGH BY
THE NEXT SYSTEM. STILL LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE CANAL ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE
NORTH TOO.

THE WINDS THAT WERE GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH MID DAY HAVE LET OFF AS THE LOW WEAKENED AND
MOVED NORTHWARD...SO HAVE LET THE STRONG WIND HEADLINES EXPIRE.

THE INCOMING FRONT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WIND WITH A BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT THE RAIN
BE IN A NARROW BAND AND BE JUST REACHING PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

USED A NAM AND NAM GFS BLEND FOR THE WINDS... AND NAM FOR THE QPF
FORECAST...AS PREFERRED THE LOOK OF THAT QPF FOOTPRINT COMPARED
TO THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE PRINCE OF WALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF ON TUESDAY WILL SET
UP A RELATED SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND IT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. SOME
LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE CORE OF THE UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH
OF THE COMMA CLOUD, AND THUS WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN GULF
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS RIDGING BUILDS
WESTWARD FROM INTERIOR BC. THIS RIDGING WILL APPEAR IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE THAT ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE WILL SWING
FARTHER EAST INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THUS FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON
THURSDAY OF WEATHER BEING DRY. THIS DRY WEATHER COULD EXTEND
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE REPRESENTED, BUT
GIVEN THAT THIS OCCURS ON DAY 3 WE NEEDED TO HEDGE WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT...EVEN AS THE STRONGER ENERGY PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...A RELATED FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE TO BRING MAINLY RAIN ONCE AGAIN. WHILE MODELS
ATTEMPT TO COME TO A CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND, IT APPEARS TO
SAFE TO NOTE THAT A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF
WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, AND THAT
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN INCREASES THE FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER
COASTWARD ONE TRAVELS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR LOCAL TWEAKS OF WINDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SYNOPTIC NORTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
FEATURE WELL TO THE SOUTH WERE INCREASED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH AND A STRONGER
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO SUPPORT ANOTHER OUTFLOW EVENT FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTH. BUT AT THIS POINT WE DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIR MASS.

WE USED NAM/GFS FOR EDITS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH EC/GFS FOR THURSDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES OR NONE AT ALL
PROVIDED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033>036-051-052.
&&

BEZENEK/JWA

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