Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
112 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE
12 UTC MODELS SEEMS TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE 18 UTC SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

UPPER AIR...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT 500 HPA A 532 DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST TUESDAY
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF BRISTOL BAY. A
STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE...
A 966 MB LOW 350 NM NW OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
JUST NORTH OF AMCHITKA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO 150 NM WEST OF ST PAUL ISLAND BY 4 PM
TUESDAY AS A 979 MB LOW...THEN TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND BY 4 AM WEDNESDAY AS A 968 MB LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WINDS ON ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND LATE TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE ISLAND
SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND AND FALLING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ST LAWRENCE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. THE FALLING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. 7 TO 12INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST COAST...SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING ON THE
YUKON DELTA TUESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD TO NORTON SOUND AND EAST
INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 9 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE YUKON DELTA...WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND BERING STRAIT COAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER ALL OF THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

NORTH SLOPE...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE REDUCED. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN UP
AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WIND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR....INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO
MCGRATH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT
DUSTING...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN 224 WITH
PERHAPS UP TO ONE INCH FALLING THERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP ON WEDNESDAY CAUSING GUSTY WINDS ON THE HILLS AND OTHER
WIND PRONE AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ214.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

FEB 16