Brisk Wind Advisory 82, NWS Fairbanks, AK

473 
FZAK51 PAFG 152319
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-161500-
219 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE ARCTIC TO
MACKENZIE BAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO FRI. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP JUST N OF AMCHITKA EARLY TUE MORNING...MOVING TO 150
NM W OF ST PAUL ISLAND BY 4 PM TUE AT 979 MB...AND TO 150 NM SW OF
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 4 AM WED AT 968 MB. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC.

$$

PKZ225-161500-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
219 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-161500-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
219 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-161500-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
219 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-161500-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
219 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-161500-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
219 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RM/SDB FEB 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
112 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 84 HOURS. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN HANDLING THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF
ALASKA...BUT THAT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS A PATTERN CHANGE COMING AS IT WILL BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEST COAST MID WEEK. EXTENDED PERIOD SOLUTIONS ARE
ALL OVER...SO WILL FOLLOW HPC LEAD AND LEAN ON THE MODELS MEANS.
FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND LEANING ON THE LATEST NAM
SOLUTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING OVER MOST OF ALASKA WILL TRANSITION
TO A BROAD OPEN TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING.
RIDGE WILL RETREAT SOUTHEAST INTO CANADA. A 501 DAM LOW 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 250 NM NORTHWEST OF
WRANGEL ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST
OVER THE SIBERIAN COAST. AS THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO
CANADA TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST IN
ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY AND
A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUES AROUND THE
LOW COMPLEX IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...THIS WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND A STRONG LOW MOVES OVER THE BERING SEA AND SENDS A WEATHER
FRONT TO THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL HANG ON OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE
WITH SOME OF THE LEFT OVER ENERGY MERGING WITH A LOW OVER BRISTOL
BAY AND MOVING EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED A BIT
ALONG THE COAST...CANCELLED THE WARNING FOR ZONE 201 EARLIER...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE HANGING ON THE RAGGED EDGE OF A BLIZZARD SO WILL
CONTINUE THEM FOR ZONES 202...203...AND 204. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS...SO THE ADVISORY FOR THE PLAINS
IN ZONE 206 WILL ALSO BE CANCELLED. WINDS HAVE ALSO SWUNG AROUND
TO A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST SO THEY ARE PICKING UP MORE SNOW TODAY
THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF WHEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS THE NAM HAS HAD
A BETTER HANDLE ON THEM IT BRINGS THE WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUITE A BIT EARLY MONDAY. SPORT NPP
VIIRS AT 14/1829Z SHOWS A GOOD BAND OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST
COAST WEST OF BARROW...AND SOME PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COAST
FROM BARROW EAST. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE SEEN TO THE EAST
OF BARROW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE WEST COAST AND STILL LIES FROM MEKORYUK TO KOYUK TO NOATAK
TO POINT LAY WITH A BAND OF LOW STRATUS AND FLURRIES THAT CAN BE
CLEARLY SEEN ON THE GOES PRODUCTS AS WELL AS THE SPORT 24 HOURS
MICROPHYSICS NPP VIIRS PRODUCT. IT HAS REMAINED STATIONARY THE
LAST 24 HOURS BUT DOES SEEM TO BE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT IT TO MOVE AND DISSIPATE AS THE BUBBLE HIGH
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. WINDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE 5 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR AS THE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THEN CLEARING LATE TUESDAY AND A BIT COOLER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR IS PULLED
SOUTH. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES
WHERE GAP WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 30 MPH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

&&

SDB FEB 16