Wind Advisory 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

783 
WWAK73 PAFG 172154
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1254 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

AKZ223-181500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-160218T1500Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE
1254 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...VICINITY OF DELTA JUNCTION.

* WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND 
  WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ225-181500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-160218T1500Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
1254 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

779 
WWAK73 PAFG 180602
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
902 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

AKZ223-225-180715-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-160218T1500Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-DENALI-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...HEALY...
DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...KANTISHNA
902 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
508 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
MINIMAL BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS
REASONABLE HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO PLAY KEEP UP WITH
OLDER MODEL RUNS UNDERESTIMATING SPEED OF BERING SEA LOW AND
ATTENDING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN WHERE THEY PLACE FEATURES HOWEVER THEY ARE ABOUT 3
HOURS FASTER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW PRESSURE IN ITS TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE GULF OF ANADYR AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 00Z MODEL RUN.
DESPITE PLAYING CATCH UP IN THE SHORT RANGE MODEL SPREAD IS
ACCEPTABLE THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS BUT SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
ENTERS THE PICTURE PAST THIS POINT REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO
BRISTOL BAY AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS FROM NORTH OF
BARROW TO NEAR ANCHORAGE THIS MORNING WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST AND
INCREASE ITS NEGATIVE TILT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING TO A GULF OF
ANADYR TO BRISTOL BAY LINE AND THE RIDGE MOVING FROM A BARROW TO
YAKUTAT LINE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWEST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY INTO THE WEST COAST SHOVING THE
REMNANTS OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NORTH AND WEST OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 963 MB LOW CURRENTLY 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ANADYR THIS EVENING AND INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THEN SOUTH INTO BRISTOL
BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST TODAY ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WHERE THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT STRETCHES APART.

WEST COAST...SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NOME
AND THE BERING STRAIT AS WELL AS THE LOWER YK DELTA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1032 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND INCREASES.
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AS WELL AS WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER YK
DELTA...EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA ON
TRACK WITH WIND GUSTS NUDGING TO WARNING CRITERIA AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO WARNING CRITERIA AS WELL.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT
ESPECIALLY THROUGH KOTZEBUE SOUND WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEST OF BARROW AHEAD THE
LOW AND ATTENDING FRONT MOVING NORTHWEST PAST ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND THE BERING STRAIT WHERE STRONG WIND HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. LOW CEILINGS FOG AND FLURRIES ARE THE RULE ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE. BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY ALONG A
FRONTAL BAND BETWEEN WAINWRIGHT AND BARROW.

INTERIOR...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER HIGHWAY SUMMITS AS THE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE LOWER YK DELTA AND WEST COAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME LOW
STRATUS...FOG NOTED IN THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC FEB 16