Brisk Wind Advisory 85, NWS Fairbanks, AK

259 
FZAK52 PAFG 180627 AAA
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
927 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-181500-
927 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE ARCTIC AND CHUKCHI
SEA. A 961 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE W AND MERGE WITH
A 962 MB LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU EVENING. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA...WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING N
OVER THE COAST.

$$

PKZ200-181500-
NORTON SOUND-
927 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.  
.THU...SW WINDS 10 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-181500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
927 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-181500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
927 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-181500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
927 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE EVENING.
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

SDB/RM/CF FEB 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
104 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS AND THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS.
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE. BEYOND 60 HOURS THEY
BECOME A LITTLE SCATTERED WITH SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST AND CHUKCHI SEA. THERE IS
CONSENSUS IN THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE
ARCTIC COAST. EXTENDED SOLUTIONS REMAIN SCATTERED...SO WILL LEAN
TOWARD HPC AND THE ECMWF AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN
BUILDING THE RIDGE. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL LEAN ON NAM SOLUTION
WHICH OF LATE HAS BEEN A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS...AND MUCH BETTER
IN HANDLING THE WINDS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...487 DAM STACKED LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS EVENING...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO
A 483 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING. A
507 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE TROUGH OVER CHIGNIK THIS
EVENING...MOVING TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A LOW
300 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT. A SKINNY RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ARCTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY MID DAY THURSDAY. A
520 DAM HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY.

SURFACE...STRONG CYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE 961
MB CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OCCLUDED FRONT LIES
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THEN SOUTHEAST TO KODIAK ISLAND TO A 980 MB LOW. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT AS THE LOW OF THE GULF OF ANADYR CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS ABSORBED BY A 970 MB LOW THAT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. RIDGING
OVER CANADA...THE EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL
PERSIST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A MIXED BAG OF WINTER WEATHER
TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING WEST OF DEADHORSE AND AROUND
GALBRAITH LAKE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS...BUT EXPECT SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS TO BE FLOATING
AROUND THE AREA...AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL GOOD
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BRING COLD AIR FROM CANADA
INTO THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRONG CYCLONE IS BRINGING SOME
NASTY WINTER WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT THINGS WILL
CALM DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED OR ARE OCCURRING AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL START
TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AROUND THE LOW
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE WARMER AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER SUMMITS AND ALONG THE TANANA RIVER...AS WELL AS NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THOSE AREAS THAT WERE WINDY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...THEN START BOUNCING BACK ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNLESS
SOME BLACK STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB FEB 16