Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

178 
FZAK51 PAFG 152305
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
305 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-161415-
305 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1034 MB HIGH NORTH OF POINT BARROW WILL PERSIST AND MOVE
GRADUALLY TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA BY TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE BERING STRAIT THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ225-161415-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
305 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-161415-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
305 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-161415-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
305 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-161415-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
305 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-161415-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
305 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

ET/RM MAY 16

087 
FZAK51 PAFG 161112
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
312 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-170015-
312 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1034 MB HIGH NORTH OF POINT BARROW WILL PERSIST AND MOVE
GRADUALLY TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA BY TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE BERING STRAIT THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ225-170015-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
312 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-170015-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
312 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-170015-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
312 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-170015-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
312 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-170015-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
312 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

MAY 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 PM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The GFS and NAM present the same general synoptic picture in the
short term; however, the GFS didn't seem to initialize well in
terms of mid level moisture based on current satellite trends and
observed soundings. As a result, the GFS is overdoing POPs and
the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the
interior. In the short term we went primarily with the NAM as a
result of the aforementioned issues.

Upper air... At 500 hpa a strong ridge that has been centered over
the ALCAN border for the past few day will finally begin to weaken
overnight tonight into tomorrow as a cold trough digs to the
south and east out of the Arctic.

Surface... A 1030 mb low north of Point Lay will slide east
though Monday. A weather front stretching from Norton Sound to
Bettles to Old Crow, Yukon Territory will move to the Yukon Delta
to Tanana to Eagle by 4 PM Sunday, and will move south to Anvik to
Denali to Chicken by 4 PM Monday. A thermal trough along the
Alaska Range will move south of the range on Sunday.

Central and Eastern Interior...A cooling trend in temperatures is
expected as the aforementioned front moves through the area.
Temperatures for most Interior locations will be around 10 degrees
cooler on Sunday as compared to Saturday. The only exception will
be in the extreme southeastern portion of the CWA, where the front
will not arrive until tomorrow afternoon or evening. We expect
winds to increase across the Interior as the front arrives.
Northerly winds generally around 15 to 25 mph are expected with
gusts up to 35 mph in a few locations. There is sufficient
instability for isolated thunderstorms south and east of
Fairbanks this evening; however, due to the lack of moisture we
expect the activity to be kept to a minimum and any thunderstorms
the do form will have little to no precipitation associated with
them. Some isolated to scattered showers are possible on Sunday
southeast of Fairbanks. We did reduce the pops in this area just a
bit as the system seems to have less moisture than advertised by
previous runs of the models. Some isolated thunderstorms are also
possible southeast of Delta on Sunday afternoon and evening.

West coast and western interior...
The skies continue to clear out across the area. No precipitation
is expected through Tuesday. The pressure gradient has tightened up
a bit over the west coast today. Across the Yukon Delta northerly
winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected tonight. A few coastal
communities have been dealing with patchy fog or patchy dense fog
during the day today and that will continue though Monday.

North Slope...
Low stratus covering most of the Arctic Coast is expected to
persist though Monday. No significant precipitation is expected
though Monday; however, a few sprinkles or flurries are possible.
Surface winds will be mainly 15 mph or less and will continue to
have a northerly component.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near Red Flag conditions are expected from Fort Yukon northeast
this afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures tomorrow after the
frontal passage will lead to somewhat increased RH values on
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

MAY 16