Brisk Wind Advisory 186, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1133 AM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Current GFS/NAM/ECMWF model runs are in general agreement through
Tuesday the placement of major surface and upper air features.
The NAM appears to be more aggressive than the GFS with
convective development over the southern and eastern interior this
afternoon and evening. Our preference is for the more conservative
GFS.

Upper air...
A ridge extending from Norton Sound to the Fairbanks area and
eastward into the Yukon Territory will continue to weaken through
Monday while being pushed southward by a cold trough digging
southwestward out of the Arctic. By late Monday night the axis of
the weakening ridge will be south of the Alaska Range. A weakly
defined trough currently extends from a low center over Banks
Island southwestward to the western interior Arctic slope. Through
late tonight the trough will move southward with a weak low center
splitting off from the trough and moving the the northern Seward
peninsula coast by late tonight. The trough will continue to
deepen and become colder late tonight through Monday night with
another upper low splitting off northwest of the middle Tanana
valley by Tuesday morning. 850 mb temperatures will become
substantially cooler over the next few days. 850 mb temperatures
over the southern interior yesterday were mainly in the 9C to 11C
range, and as warm as 14C near the Alcan border. By late Monday
night 850 mb temperatures will fall to near or below 0C over the
southern interior. Over the northeastern interior and the Arctic
Slope, 850 mb temperatures will fall to 5%C to -10C by late
Monday night.

Surface...
A 1033 mb high centered 200 miles northwest of Barrow will move
to 300 miles north of Deadhorse by late Monday night while
building to 1035 mb, then remain nearly stationary through late
Tuesday night. A cold front lying east-west across the northern
interior will move slowly southward across central and southern
interior through late Monday night. A thermal trough extending
from Minchumina to 50 miles north of Northway and eastward into
the Yukon Territory will move about 100 miles southward through
Tuesday evening with the trough axis lying south of the Alaska
Range by Tuesday evening.

Central and eastern interior...
Temperatures today will be as much as 20 degrees cooler than
yesterday as the cooler air infiltrates southward. Temperatures
may cool a few more days Monday. Scattered rain showers are
expected over most southern interior areas today through
Monday...with numerous rain showers in a few areas. Isolated
thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening in the Upper
yukon and Fortymile country, Denali, and the eastern Alaska Range.

Western interior...
Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening
over the Upper Kuskokwim valley...elsewhere little or no
precipitation is expected through Tuesday.

West coast...
Mostly clear skies expected through Tuesday. North winds 15 to 25
mph over St Lawrence Island and the Bering strait coast today
through Monday night.

North Slope...
Mostly cloudy skies continuing along with flurries, scattered snow
showers and patchy fog in some areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler today in
the southern and eastern interior, with a little more cooling
expected Monday. Minimum humidities will be higher, mainly in the
30s today through Tuesday. No red flag conditions are anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
None.

&&

.AFG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Small Craft Advisory...PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

RF MAY 16