Small Craft Advisory 78, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
441 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...The models are in good very good agreement in the
short and medium term. A upper level low in the high arctic will
be the dominate feature in the weather pattern in the short term.
A short wave trough rotating around the upper low will help to
push the last remnants of a upper level ridge east into Canada
today. By late Sunday the flow around the upper low across the
northern half of the state will turn more zonal helping to usher
in a cooler and wet pattern to the interior and portions of the
west coast.

North Slope...A cold front will pass through the north slope
today bringing along with it gusty winds. Southwest
winds will pickup along the northwest coast today and continue
into tomorrow evening along the northwest coast. Winds will switch
one again to on shore this evening and continue through tomorrow morning.
The onshore winds from Wainwright east to Barrow will bring
another round of minor beach erosion and elevated surf as well as
a low threat for an ice push from this evening through tomorrow
similar to the conditions seen in the area on Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated thunderstorms are again
possible again today from Fairbanks east. After today, we will
see a break in thunderstorm activity through at least the middle
of the upcoming work week. A cooling trend in temperatures is
expected over the next few days. Models are in very good agreement
that as the upper level flow across the northern half of Alaska
turns more zonal it will bring a flow of moisture into the
Interior. Sunday night through Tuesday will be a cooler, cloudy
with increased chances for showers. One potential issue in the
short term is dense smoke from wildfires. Smoke with visibility
less than on mile was reported in the Bettles area overnight due
to westerly winds bringing in smoke from nearby fires. A dense
smoke advisory was issued for the Upper Koyukuk Valley for this
morning. We expect the visibility in the area to improve late this
morning, but it may drop down again overnight.

West Coast and Western Interior...A shortwave will bring periods
of rain the Seward Peninsula and areas northward beginning
tonight. After the shortwave passes by there will be westerly flow
aloft over the northern portion of the state, this will usher in a
cool and wet period, particularly for areas north of Norton Sound.
Looking ahead, the models are actually in good agreement that an
area of low pressure will move move through the Bering Sea
Wednesday before pushing inland over the Yukon Delta early
Thursday. Both the ECMWF and the GFS are depicting decent QPF
numbers over the west coast and western interior Wednesday into
Thursday; however there is some placement differences between the
two that will be resolved as we get closer to the event.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...See discussion in the
north slope section above for short term issues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms from Fairbanks east today.
Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing frequent
lightning, and small hail as well as heavy downpours. Much cooler
with higher RH values expected through the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ219.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

JUL 16