Dense Smoke Advisory 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1152 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12
analysis and verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread
remains minimal both between model families and from run to run
in both the short range and mid range. Model spread continues to
increase but is reasonable in the long range.

Aloft...the 583 DAM ridge over northern Alaska will continue to
slowly weaken and push to the east as a strong short wave
currently over the northwest coast continues to push south and
east over into the central and eastern North Slope today and into
the interior Saturday. The front will bring welcome relief to the
record breaking heat of the last several days over the interior.

Surface winds have switched to the west northwest along the
northwest coast with considerable stranded ice noted on the Barrow
web cam. Expect minor beach erosion and elevated surf along the
northwest coast especially to the east of Wainwright through this
evening. The west to northwest winds will diminish this afternoon
further lowering the threat of an ice push in this area. Southwest
winds will pickup again tomorrow and continue into tomorrow
evening along the northwest coast. Winds will switch one again to
on shore Saturday evening and continue through Sunday morning.
Expect very similar conditions with the second front with minor
beach erosion and elevated surf and  a low threat for an ice push
Saturday evening into Sunday.

Much colder temperatures as expected today behind the front over
the North Slope and the northwestern interior while it will remain
very warm over the central and eastern interior ahead of the front
today where temperatures are still expected to rise into the lower
to mid 80s despite increasing cloud cover from erupting
thunderstorms.

A very unstable airmass has developed over the south central and
southeastern interior where thunderstorms fired through out the
entire night last night and still continue this morning. Expect
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop and redevelop in
an area from near Galena east to Fairbanks and then covering much
of the forty mile country including Eagle and the upper Tanana
Valley including Northway. Some of these thunderstorms will
produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain and small
hail. The frequent lighting elevates fire weather concerns however
heavy downpours are also expected with these storms. Will need to
closely monitor this afternoon for slow moving storms locally
dropping heavy rains in a short period of time. Precipitable water
on the Fairbanks 12z sounding was just over an inch so the slow
moving storms could drop a lot of rain in a short period of time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Surface winds along the
northwest coast have become west to northwest which has resulted
in some ice becoming stranded near the beaches in the vicinity of
Barrow. Expect minor beach erosion with elevated surf and stranded
ice near shore through this evening before the on shore winds
will diminish. Southwest along shore winds pick up again Saturday
morning and afternoon as the next front approaches from the
northwest. Winds will again become on shore Saturday evening and
continue into Sunday morning before diminishing. Continue to
monitor through passage of the second front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting isolated to scattered thunderstorms in an area from
Galena east to Fairbanks and covering much of the Fortymile
Country and upper Tanana Valley. The thunderstorms will produce
frequent lightning however they are also expected to be wet storms
possibly producing heavy rains. Much cooler with higher RH values
expected through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Continue to monitor rainfall totals with slow moving
training thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain fall over a
short period of time this afternoon and evening especially in the
foothills of the Alaska Range and Fortymile country.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC JUL 16