Small Craft Advisory 75, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1207 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...Heat to continue through Friday for much of the
interior.

Aloft at 500 hpa a 582 DAM ridge remains parked over northern
Alaska and will remain in place today and early Friday before
retreating to the east as a strong upper level trough approaches
the northwest coast Friday morning and dives into the northern
interior Saturday. 850 mb temperatures remain in the 14 to 16
Celsius range over much of the interior and will produce near
record temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s over much of
the interior today and lingering into Friday over the central and
eastern interior. The 850 mb temperature on the 12z sounding over
Fairbanks was near 16 Celsius and will force surface temperatures
into the mid to upper 80s again this afternoon. As the upper level
ridge slips to the east the atmosphere particularly to the south
of Fairbanks is becoming less capped. Expect isolated thunderstorms
along and south of an Eagle to Fairbanks to Galena line this
afternoon and evening as capped conditions remain over the
northern interior and Brooks Range. Increased cloud cover from
thunderstorms combined with slightly lower heights as the ridge
slips to the east is expected to shave a couple degrees off of
today and Fridays high temperatures over the interior.

A strong cold front moving southeast out of the high arctic will
push on shore over the northwest coast Friday morning and push
into the northern interior Friday night. The front weakens
considerably Saturday as it moves into the interior but will still
provide much cooler temperatures over the interior. Expect the
front to be the focus for thunderstorms as it moves south and east
through the interior Saturday especially as it interacts with a
thermal trough over the central and eastern interior roughly along
a Bettles to Northway line Saturday Afternoon.

The Strong cold front will provide dramatically cooler
temperatures on the north slope Friday and Saturday as compared
the record breaking temperatures of the last several days. Inland
portions of the North Slope that will see temperatures in the 80s
again today will struggle to reach the 60s by Saturday. Snow is
expected to mix with the rain near Barrow Saturday night. Moderate
along shore winds ahead of the front and then moderate on shore
winds just after the front will produce elevate surf, minor
coastal erosion and the potential for ice to push on shore
especially east of Wainwright to near Point Barrow.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains
reasonable in both the short range and mid range with some
minor differences on position and timing of the strong front
moving southeast out of the high arctic noted. Spread between
model families has increased on the 12z suite as compared to
yesterday in the long range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Expect minor coastal
erosion, elevated surf and the possibility of an on shore ice push
along the northwest coast especially to the east of Wainwright to
near Point Barrow beginning Friday morning and continuing through
early Friday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cooling trend beginning tonight will bring temperatures across
the area down 15 to 20 degrees through the weekend. That will
produce increased relative humidity values across the area and
excellent overnight recovery to most areas. Winds generally light
but as a weather front moves east across the northern interior
there will be some increase in the gusty winds. Thunderstorm
activity will continue with the highest potential for lightning
tonight and Friday south of a line from Eagle to Fairbanks to
Unalakleet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC JUL 16