Gale Warning 79, NWS Fairbanks, AK

372 
FZAK51 PAFG 142208
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-151315-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SLOPE THROUGH FRI. A 1006 MB LOW NEAR WRANGLE ISLAND WILL DEEPEN
TO 1003 MB AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO BE LOCATED 350 NM NORTH OF
BARROW FRI MORNING AT 999 MB WITH A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ225-151315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-151315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-151315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-151315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-151315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

CCC/JK JUL 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Main forecast concern during the short term is the sweltering, hot
temperatures that are baking the Interior and North Slope. This
heat and strong upper level ridge has been well advertised by
models, but the details of the advertised relief in a form of a
strong cold front have been changing slightly with each model run.
Model agreement amongst the 14/00Z deterministic models is very
good through the weekend with increasing spread in model solutions
early to mid next week. Despite changing details in the
progression of the advertised cold front over Northern Alaska,
there is strong model agreement with the 14/00z run regarding the
movement of the cold front and the placement and amounts of
forecast precipitation.

As stated above, the sweltering, hot weather will continue today
as a very strong 582 DAM upper level ridge remains parked over
Northern Alaska today. H850 temperatures 14 to 16 C are once
again advertised for today over the same places that saw mid to
upper 80s and lower 90s on Wednesday. Some locations either tied
or broke daily high temperatures or broke all time record highs.
Deadhorse broke their all-time high with a high of 85 degrees
today, but will see cooler temperatures in the 70s today. The heat
will hang on over the interior Friday with high temperatures in
the 80s before relief arrives with a cold front sweeping south.

Relief from the heat will come Friday to the North Slope as a
strong cold sweeps south from the Arctic and will coincide with an
upper level trough and colder H850 temperatures. Initially,
models were advertising a strong upper low and well below normal
temperatures (sub zero H850 temps), but over successive model
runs models have backed off considerably. As the cold front
moves south Friday, temperatures will fall during the day over
the North Slope as colder H850 temperatures advect south over the
area. A band of moderate to at times heavy stratiform
precipitation is expected ahead of this front. Precipitation type
will remain all rain as the main band of precipitation will remain
out ahead of the colder air. However, temperatures may be cool
enough at Barrow to see mixed precip or even freezing rain Friday,
so this will need to be monitored. This stratiform rain band will
march south with the front Friday, bringing moderate to heavy
rainfall over the western Brooks Range, Chukchi Sea coast,
northern Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue Sound area. A period of
strong southwesterly winds are expected along the Western Arctic
Coast Friday morning with winds shifting to the Northwest
following the frontal passage Friday.

The cold front will continue to march south and weaken Friday
night and Saturday over the Interior. Cooler temperatures will
filter south, bringing an end to the sweltering heat over the
Interior. High temperatures in the 70s are forecast Saturday over
the Interior.

Chances for thunderstorms will be limited to along the Upper
Tanana Valley and Alaska Range west to the Yukon Delta this
afternoon and evening. As the upper level ridge is pushed south
and the subsidence aloft weakens, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will spread north and increase over the Southern
Interior Friday and Saturday.

Over the Bering Sea, Saint Lawrence Island and Bering Strait
Coast, marine stratus and fog will linger today. Low ceilings and
fog will likely move onshore over the coastal areas in North Sound
and along the Bering Strait and continue into the evening and
overnight as the sea breeze kicks in.

Coastal Hazard Potential...A Special Weather Statement was issued
Wednesday covering the minor coastal erosion, the elevated surf
and the on shore ice push that is expected to develop along the
northwest coast especially to the east of Wainwright to near Point
Barrow beginning Friday morning and continuing through early
Friday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong upper level ridge will continue to bake the interior.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue through
Friday. Min RH values will continue to drop with upper 20s
expected over many locations over the interior today. Temperature
and min RH criteria will meet Red Flag criteria over many parts of
the interior today however winds are expect to remain light and
not make Red Flag criteria. Will need to monitor closely Friday
as the approaching cold front from the north will increase the
gradient and will likely produce winds meeting Red Flag criteria
over the northern interior Friday especially in the yukon flats
and surrounding higher terrain. Continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory FOR PKZ240.
&&

LTH Jul 16