Small Craft Advisory 74, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1246 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...Baked Alaska on the menu for the interior through
Friday. A very strong upper level ridge at 500 hpa continues to
park over northern Alaska and will produce record to near record
temperatures over much of the Alaska interior through Friday.
A strong cold front will sweep south out of the high arctic
through the North Slope Friday and the interior Saturday and will
provide some relief in the form of much cooler temperatures late
in the weekend and early next week.

The 582 DAM ridge at 500 HPA over northern Alaska combined with
850 mb temperatures near 16 Celsius and mostly clear skies
continue to bake the interior with many locations expected to
reach the upper 80s and lower 90s today. 88 degrees is the record
for the 13th of July for Fairbanks with 90 forecasted for this
afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be isolated and
confined to the foothills of the Alaska Range as the atmosphere
elsewhere is capped with warm and dry airmass aloft.

Extensive marine stratus noted on satellite imagery through Norton
Sound and the Bering Strait. Low ceilings and fog will likely
move into coastal areas in Norton Sound and through the Bering
Strait again this afternoon and continue into this evening as sea
breeze kicks in.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains low
between model families and from run to run in both the short range
as well as the mid range. Model spread remains very reasonable in
feature strength and position into the long range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A Special Weather
Statement was issued this morning covering the minor coastal
erosion, the elevated surf and the on shore ice push that is
expected to develop along the northwest coast especially to the
east of Wainwright to near Point Barrow beginning Friday morning
and continuing through early Friday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong upper level ridge will continue to bake the interior.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue through
Friday. Min RH values will continue to drop with lower 30s
expected today and upper 20s expected over many locations over the
interior Thursday. Temperature and min RH criteria will meet Red
Flag criteria over many parts of the interior today and Thursday
however winds are expect to remain light and not make Red Flag
criteria today and Thursday. Will need to monitor closely Friday
as the approaching cold front from the north will increase the
gradient and will likely produce winds meeting Red Flag criteria
over the northern interior Friday especially in the yukon flats
and surrounding higher terrain. Continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
&&

CCC JUL 16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1200 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

AKZ201-202-152000-
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE...
BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK
1200 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SEA ICE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. 20 TO 30 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 MPH BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING FRIDAY.

AT THIS TIME MINOR COASTAL EROSION AND ELEVATED SURF IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF WAINWRIGHT TO
NEAR POINT BARROW BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ANYONE OPERATING IN THE WATERS NEAR THE
COAST ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF WAINWRIGHT TO NEAR POINT BARROW
MAY FIND ICE CLOSING IN QUICKLY TOWARD THE SHORE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THOSE WITH BOATS...EQUIPMENT OR OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS LOCATED NEAR
THE BEACH MAY CONSIDER MOVING THEM FURTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM
THE WATERS EDGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS AND TIMING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AFG/ AND THE LATEST SEA ICE
INFORMATION AT THE NWS ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW/WEATHER.GOV/AFC/ICE.