Small Craft Advisory 73, NWS Fairbanks, AK

615 
FZAK52 PAFG 141153
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
353 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-150300-
353 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWEST BERING
SEA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR
INTO FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ200-150300-
NORTON SOUND-
353 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-150300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
353 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-150300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
353 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-150300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
353 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

LTH/RM JUL 16

240 
FZAK52 PAFG 142208
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-151315-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWEST BERING
SEA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR
INTO FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ200-151315-
NORTON SOUND-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-151315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-151315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-151315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
208 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

CCC/JK JUL 16

717 
FZAK52 PAFG 151228
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
428 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-160015-
428 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA INTO
THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA TODAY.

$$

PKZ200-160015-
NORTON SOUND-
428 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-160015-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
428 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-160015-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
428 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-160015-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
428 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RM JUL 16

005 
FZAK52 PAFG 152233
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-161245-
233 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHERN
BERING SEA . A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE NORTH
SLOPE INTO THE INTERIOR.

$$

PKZ200-161245-
NORTON SOUND-
233 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

PKZ210-161245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
233 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

PKZ215-161245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
233 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

PKZ220-161245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
233 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

CCC/JK JUL 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1246 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...Baked Alaska on the menu for the interior through
Friday. A very strong upper level ridge at 500 hpa continues to
park over northern Alaska and will produce record to near record
temperatures over much of the Alaska interior through Friday.
A strong cold front will sweep south out of the high arctic
through the North Slope Friday and the interior Saturday and will
provide some relief in the form of much cooler temperatures late
in the weekend and early next week.

The 582 DAM ridge at 500 HPA over northern Alaska combined with
850 mb temperatures near 16 Celsius and mostly clear skies
continue to bake the interior with many locations expected to
reach the upper 80s and lower 90s today. 88 degrees is the record
for the 13th of July for Fairbanks with 90 forecasted for this
afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be isolated and
confined to the foothills of the Alaska Range as the atmosphere
elsewhere is capped with warm and dry airmass aloft.

Extensive marine stratus noted on satellite imagery through Norton
Sound and the Bering Strait. Low ceilings and fog will likely
move into coastal areas in Norton Sound and through the Bering
Strait again this afternoon and continue into this evening as sea
breeze kicks in.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains low
between model families and from run to run in both the short range
as well as the mid range. Model spread remains very reasonable in
feature strength and position into the long range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A Special Weather
Statement was issued this morning covering the minor coastal
erosion, the elevated surf and the on shore ice push that is
expected to develop along the northwest coast especially to the
east of Wainwright to near Point Barrow beginning Friday morning
and continuing through early Friday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong upper level ridge will continue to bake the interior.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s will continue through
Friday. Min RH values will continue to drop with lower 30s
expected today and upper 20s expected over many locations over the
interior Thursday. Temperature and min RH criteria will meet Red
Flag criteria over many parts of the interior today and Thursday
however winds are expect to remain light and not make Red Flag
criteria today and Thursday. Will need to monitor closely Friday
as the approaching cold front from the north will increase the
gradient and will likely produce winds meeting Red Flag criteria
over the northern interior Friday especially in the yukon flats
and surrounding higher terrain. Continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
&&

CCC JUL 16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1200 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

AKZ201-202-152000-
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE...
BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK
1200 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SEA ICE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. 20 TO 30 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 MPH BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING FRIDAY.

AT THIS TIME MINOR COASTAL EROSION AND ELEVATED SURF IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF WAINWRIGHT TO
NEAR POINT BARROW BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ANYONE OPERATING IN THE WATERS NEAR THE
COAST ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF WAINWRIGHT TO NEAR POINT BARROW
MAY FIND ICE CLOSING IN QUICKLY TOWARD THE SHORE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THOSE WITH BOATS...EQUIPMENT OR OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS LOCATED NEAR
THE BEACH MAY CONSIDER MOVING THEM FURTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM
THE WATERS EDGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS AND TIMING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AFG/ AND THE LATEST SEA ICE
INFORMATION AT THE NWS ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW/WEATHER.GOV/AFC/ICE.