Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

937 
FZAK51 PAFG 121147
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
347 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-130300-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 983 MB LOW LOCATED 150 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE
EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST AND WILL BE LOCATED 250 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW MONDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ARCTIC MONDAY.

$$

PKZ225-130300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-130300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-130300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-130300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-130300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
347 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

CCC/NTS JUN 16

636 
FZAK51 PAFG 122230
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-131330-
230 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 986 MB LOW 150 NM NW OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 500 NM N OF
BARROW BY MON AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE ARCTIC INTO THE
BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE TUE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD E
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN TUE WITH A 1021 MB HIGH DEVELOPING
OVER BARTER ISLAND TUE MORNING...THEN MOVING SE AND MERGING WITH
THE RIDGE OVER CANADA.

$$

PKZ225-131330-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
230 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-131330-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
230 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-131330-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
230 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-131330-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
230 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-131330-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
230 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SDB/DA JUN 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
113 PM AKDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Very good agreement in the short term with improved
agreement in the extended periods. Initialized with a couple
millibars against the surface analysis at 11/18z. Going to
maintain continuity with the previous forecasts so just going to
nudge the current database for the short term.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...Ridging over the southeastern interior
extends from Eagle northwest over Point Hope and will weaken a bit
as the eastern continues to move northeast while the west drops
south so the ridge will lie along the south slopes of the Brooks
range and over Kotzebue sound by Sunday morning. A 538 dam low
over Cold Bay will move east to the southwestern Gulf of Alaska
by Sunday morning at 541 dam, then continue east to 100 nm west of
Ketchikan by Monday morning. A shortwave over the western arctic
will spin around the 515 dam low 600 nm northwest of Wrangel
island to lie over the northwest coast early Sunday as it weakens.
The low will move south tonight to be 200 nm north of Wrangel
island with a shortwave extending south and merging into the
longwave trough over the west coast. The low will move east to 200
nm northwest of Barrow Sunday night then moves north into the high
arctic by Tuesday morning. The longwave trough will slowly march
east across the state with it over the middle Yukon valley by
Sunday morning and will lie from over barrow to Delta Junction to
off the coast near Sitka by Monday morning. A strong shortwave
will spin around the low in the arctic to be over the northwest
coast late Sunday evening, and will lie from barrow to Galena
Monday afternoon, and from Deadhorse to Delta Junction by Tuesday
morning. A col will move over the Bering Strait this evening, the
western interior by Sunday morning, and the eastern interior by
Monday morning. AT 850 HPA...Zero isotherm over the arctic. Over
the upper Yukon flats and south slopes of the Brooks range
temperatures around 10 celsius tonight will persist through Sunday
then start cooling. The remainder of the forecast area will
generally have temperatures between 3 and 8 degrees celsius into
Monday. The next front will move over the northwest coast monday
and the zero isotherm will lie from Deadhorse to Ambler to Cape
Espenberg by Monday afternoon.

SURFACE...Pretty benign pattern over the interior with weak
trough across the middle of the state and plenty of moisture being
slung north. Low in the northwest arctic will continue to spin
in place through tonight them moves east spinning a cold front to
the northwest coast Sunday night. Weak trough moves north to the
south slopes of the Brooks range by Monday afternoon and ridging
will build in over the eastern bering sea and along the north
slopes of the Alaska range by early Tuesday.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Some stratus along the coast
tonight, while inland over the southern plains and central Brooks
range it will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Weak front will bring more clouds to the
northwest coast Sunday. GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at
11/1915Z indicates mainly VFR conditions over the arctic, which is
a drastic change from normal. Much warmer than it has been in the
inland areas and Brooks range tonight and Sunday. Winds generally
southwest to west 5 to 20 mph through Sunday with the strongest
winds over the northwest coast.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Isolated thunderstorms and
scattered showers this evening south of ambler, and to a lesser
extend on Sunday. Some of the heaviest rains will be in the Nulato
hills tonight and Sunday with rainfall amounts around a half inch.
The next cold front will move into the area from the northwest
early Monday morning and spread some showers to the Chukchi Sea
coast and Kotzebue sound region by early Monday morning.
Temperatures similar to today through Monday morning, then cooling
a bit to begin the week. Light winds through early Monday then
picking up from the west and northwest on the coast as the cold
front moves through the area.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Isolated thunderstorms and
scattered showers this evening with showers overnight persisting
through Monday over the central interior, and Tuesday in the
eastern interior. Some of the thunderstorms will have small hail,
short heavy downpours, and gusty winds to 25 mph. Much of the
thunderstorm activity will move north into the upper Yukon flats
on Sunday, but there will still be a slight chance to the south. A
slight cooling trend through mid week. Winds generally light
except near the Alaska range winds will be gusting to near 30 mph.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimal fire weather concerns for Northern Alaska
over the next few days. Relative Humidities will increase as
moisture spreads north, especially over the Northern Interior
where conditions have been the driest. Most locations should
generally see relative humidity values above 35 percent through
early next week.

Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to continue
and develop over the Interior and Central Brooks Range. They will
likely be isolated in coverage, but there is the possibility for scattered
thunderstorms from Anvik to Galena east through Fairbanks and
Circle. Chances for thunderstorms will shift to the north Sunday
and in an area from Tanana to Circle and north.

Wetting rains are possible over the Middle Tanana Valley and
Fortymile Country this evening into Sunday. Numerous showers and
periods of rain are expected and could potentially bring upwards
to three quarters of an inch of rain...heaviest southeast of
Fairbanks.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Some locally heavy showers but not expected to be
widespread enough to create any issues.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ201-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB JUN 16