Small Craft Advisory 263, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 AM AKST Fri Nov 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Model spread has decreased
considerably in the short range as well as the mid and long range.

Aloft, at 500 HPA, a 501 DAM low currently 100 nm north of
Demarcation Point will deepen to 497 DAM and drift slowly south to
be near Demarcation Point Friday night and then move northeast to
near Banks Island Saturday night. A low pressure trough extending
southwest from the upper level low will remain over a Demarcation
Point to Seward Peninsula line through Saturday morning and then
retreat to the west to be along a Prudhoe Bay to Bering Strait
line by Sunday Morning. The upper level trough extending to the
south of the low begins to sweep eastward over the western
interior Monday morning and into the central interior Tuesday
morning. A shortwave currently over the central Aleutians will
deepen to a 514 DAM low over Bristol Bay and deepen again to 510
DAM as it tracks to the east to be over Cordova Sunday morning and
will weaken to 515 DAM as it moves northeast into the southern
Yukon Monday morning.

A front over the central Bering Sea extends from the Gulf of
Anadyr to St Lawrence Island to the lower YK delta and stretches
into the southern interior. Light snow accompanies this front as
well as gusty winds through the Bering Strait. Moisture along this
front will increase as it drifts into the northern interior. light
snow will fall tonight and Saturday north and west of Fairbanks
where an inch or two may fall. Southerly flow with the developing
chinook event over the eastern Alaska Range will limit snow in
Fairbanks and areas to the east and south to an inch or less. As
the upper level low moves east over south central Alaska Saturday
southerly winds will increase over the eastern Alaska Range. Model
guidance continues to indicate around 65 Kts at mountain top level
as well as a moderate mountain wave developing over the eastern
Alaska Range Saturday afternoon and evening. A high wind watch
has been issued for this area.

As the upper level low continues to move east into the southern
Yukon Sunday and Monday a cold airmass over the north slope moves
south and east over the western interior Sunday and into the
central interior Monday. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks will
drop from around 10 below Sunday morning to 15 to 20 below Monday
morning and will continue to drop to around 20 to 25 below by
Wednesday morning. Temperatures are expected to remain well below
normal for much of next week over much of northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC NOV 16