Small Craft Advisory 261, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Issued

Nov 24, 2016, 3:57 PM AKST (00:57 UTC)

Expired

Nov 25, 2016, 3:15 AM AKST

In force

11 hr

Issued by

NWS Fairbanks, AK

245 
FZAK52 PAFG 250057
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
357 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-251215-
357 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
AN EXPANSIVE 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED 600 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL BUILD TO A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED 900 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BARROW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN TO A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
950 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF CAPE NAVARIN TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AND
SOUTHWARD WILL STRETCH OUT AND WEAKEN TO EXTEND FROM DALL POINT
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY NOON FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ200-251215-
NORTON SOUND-
357 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-251215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
357 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-251215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
357 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-251215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
357 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RF NOV 16

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Nov 24, 3:14 PM AKST, 43 minutes earlier.

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
314 PM AKST Thu Nov 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper air...

There are only minor differences between the
current model runs out through early Sunday morning.

A moderately strong upper low centered about 150 nm
northeast of Demarcation Point will remain nearly
stationary through midnight Friday night, then
move to 400 nm northwest of Banks Island by midnight
Saturday night. A moderately cold airmass with 850 mb
temperatures colder than -20C will persist over the
northern interior and the Arctic slope through Sunday.

A weak ridge extending from Norton Sound to the
Cook Inlet area will move eastward to extend from
the Northway area by 3 am Friday then continue
on eastward into Canada.

An upper low 400 nm southwest of Cape Navarin will
weaken into a a weak trough by 3 pm Friday. A
short wave trough currently extends from the low
center to 100 nm southwest of Nunivak Island then
southeastward to the eastern Aleutians. This feature
will weaken and move eastward through 3 pm Friday,
with a weak upper low remaining over the northern
Gulf of Alaska south of Middleton Island. This
low will weaken into a trough just offshore from the
panhandle by 6 am Saturday.

The next transitory ridge will move onshore along the
southwest mainland coast by 3 am Saturday, then
move eastward to extend the central and eastern
Alaska Range by 3 pm Saturday, then push eastward
into Canada Saturday night. A period of strong
winds aloft across the Alaska Range can be expected
from around noon Saturday through late Saturday
night. This will be followed by another upper low moving
eastward to Bristol Bay Sunday afternoon which will
weaken into a trough over the northern Gulf of Alaska
and the south central mainland by early Sunday morning.

Surface...

An expansive 1031 mb high centered 600 nm northwest
of Barrow will build to a 1034 mb high centered 900
nm north northwest of Barrow by Friday afternoon, then
weaken to a 1028 mb high centered centered 950 nm
northwest of Barrow by Sunday afternoon.

A 1014 mb low centered 100 nm west of Banks Island
will dissipate into a trough 250 nm north northeast
of Demarcation Point by Saturday morning. A 1010 mb
low will develop over eastern Banks Island late Friday
night then deepen to a 1000 mb low centered 600 nm
north of Demarcation Point by Sunday afternoon.

A weather front extending from just south of Cape
Navarin to Nunivak Island and then southward to
the eastern Aleutians will stretch out and weaken
to extend from Dall Point to the northern Gulf of
Alaska by noon Friday.

The weather front will bring snow to St Lawrence
Island, areas along the west coast from Norton
Sound southward, and the southwest interior
tonight, with snow spreading to the southern
parts of the lower Yukon valley and the upper
Kuskokwim valley early Friday morning with PoP's
decreasing rapidly during the day.

Strong and gusty south winds are expected in passes
west of the Tok Cutoff in the eastern Alaska Range
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The strongest
winds are expected Saturday evening, when maximum gusts
to 75 mph will be possible.

Interior temperatures will continue to be heavily
dependent on cloud cover.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215.
&&

RF NOV 16

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.