Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
150 PM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialized well against the 12z analysis and verified
well against the 18z analysis. Run to run model spread is minimal
and spread between model families is minimal in the short range as
well as the mid term. Model spread is reasonable in the extended
range.

Aloft at 500 HPA, a sharp short wave trough extending southwest
along a Dead Horse to Bettles to Unalakleet line continue to dig
south as the 522 parent low currently located 300 NM north of
demarcation point continues to move south and west to be located
200 NM north of Dead Horse Thursday morning and 100 NM north of
Dead Horse Thursday evening. 850 mb temperatures along the eastern
North Slope will continue to fall from around 4 below this evening
to around 12 below Thursday morning. Sharp cold air advection is
expected over much of northern alaska behind the southward digging
short wave trough. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks are expected
to drop from around 8 above this evening to around 4 above
Thursday morning and 2 above Thursday evening.

Thunderstorms are beginning to form this afternoon along a Fort
Yukon to Tanana line ahead of the shortwave. The area of
thunderstorms are expected to move south and east through this
evening ahead of the upper level trough.

Significant rain fall is expected in the western Alaska Range and
foothills as the upper level trough stalls along the Alaska Range
late tonight and Thursday. Low level and mid level upslope
northwest to north flow combined favorable upper level dynamics
will produce significant rains in the one half to one inch range
for the 24 hour period beginning this evening and continuing into
Thursday evening. The next 24 hour period from Thursday evening
to Friday evening is progged to produce similar amounts of rain
fall. 48 hour rain fall totals in the 1 to 2 inches range are
progged for the area between Farewell Lake and Denali National
Park Headquarters. Will need to monitor this area closely for
rises on small streams especially in steep terrain. Snowmelt from
recent warm weather at higher elevations will likely add to water
levels.

Favorable upper level conditions combined with enhanced upslope
flow and unseasonably cool weather will combine over the eastern
Brooks Range for advisory level snow east of Arctic Village. Sub
advisory level snow accumulations are expected as well in zone
206 in and near the brooks range. On shore flow over the North
Slope will maintain the low ceilings, fog and flurries into
Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimal fire weather concerns over the central and eastern
interior as RH values rise and temperatures fall behind cold
front pushing through the central interior at this time. RH values
over the northwest interior will not increase much behind the
front however temperatures will continue to drop. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected over the central and eastern interior
ahead of the front this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Models continue to indicate 24 hr rain fall totals in the one half
to one inch range in the western Alaska Range from near Farewell
Lake to Denali Park Headquarters beginning this evening and
continuing into Thursday evening. The next 24 hours from Thursday
evening to Friday evening indicate similar amounts of rain
falling in the same area for a 48 hour total in the one to 2
inches range. Will need to monitor closely for rises on small
streams especially in steep terrain. Snowmelt from recent warm
weather at higher elevations will likely add to water levels.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC JUN 16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
312 PM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

AKZ227-030200-
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING...MCGRATH...NIKOLAI...TAKOTNA...FAREWELL LAKE
312 PM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...

A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE ALASKA
RANGE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA RANGE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN FAREWELL LAKE AND DENALI
NATIONAL PARK HEADQUARTERS. RECENT SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH WATER LEVELS AND
SWIFT CURRENTS ON SMALL STREAMS ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. WATER
LEVELS MAY RISE RAPIDLY. PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND SMALL
STREAMS IN THESE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
316 PM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

AKZ225-030200-
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
316 PM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...

A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE ALASKA
RANGE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA RANGE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN FAREWELL LAKE AND DENALI
NATIONAL PARK HEADQUARTERS. RECENT SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH WATER LEVELS AND
SWIFT CURRENTS ON SMALL STREAMS ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. WATER
LEVELS MAY RISE RAPIDLY. PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND SMALL
STREAMS IN THESE AREAS.