Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Short term solutions are very similar and run to run
continuity has been good through the weekend. The precipitation
guidance is a bit broad brush on the GFS and ECMWF as usual so
will lean toward the NAM and SREF solutions. For temperatures will
just nudge them a bit to the latest guidance.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...573 dam high over the chukchi sea continues
to move to the northwest tonight with ridging across the state
weakening. As the ridge slides out, a trough associated with a
527 dam low 600 nm north of Demarcation Point will in drop
southwest across the state and by Wednesday afternoon will lie
from over Deadhorse to Nome with the low 300 nm north of Barter
Island, and by Thursday afternoon will lie from Deadhorse to
Mcgrath with the low 200 nm north of Deadhorse at 524 dam, and by
Friday afternoon it drifts a bit west to lie from over Cape
Halkett to Nunivak Island with the low over the western Brooks
range at 536 dam. At 850 HPA...Zero isotherm is pushing south over
the Arctic coast this evening and will lie over the brooks range
by Wednesday afternoon, then lie from old Crow Yukon to Ambler to
Koyuk to Savoonga then northwest by Thursday afternoon. A little
warmer in the interior Thursday as temperatures climb to around 10
Celsius, than a cooling trend through the weekend.

SURFACE...1006 mb low over the upper Yukon flats will continue to
drop south and will be over the north slopes of the Alaska range
by Wednesday afternoon with a 995 mb low over Minchumina and a 996
mb low over Chicken. The trough will persist over the area into
the weekend. A 1027 mb high over the western arctic will weaken
then rebuild over the area Thursday. A 1010 mb low 600 nm
northeast of Demarcation point will move south to 300 nm northeast
of demarcation point by Wednesday afternoon, then remains
stationary into Friday evening before being absorbed into a low in
the high arctic. Ridging over the arctic coast will weaken a bit
Wednesday then build back east over the area Thursday night with
a 1020 mb high center developing 100 nm north of Deadhorse late
Friday.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Onshore flow will continue for a
while. Expecting periods of Stratus and flurries as some cooler
arctic air is dragged south over the area. winds generally not
that strong but will be persistent in the 10 to 20 mph range.
Expect high in the 30s and lows in the 20s along the coast with
slightly warmer temperatures inland. Had some dense fog this
morning and expect that we will be chasing the fog a bit with the
onshore flow. Some light snow developing east of Barrow on
Wednesday could spread a couple inches of snow over the area with
the heaviest amounts in the eastern Brooks range. With ridging to
the north and troughing south winds are kicking up a bit through
the Brooks range and will persist in the 15 to 25 mph range into
Thursday before diminishing a bit.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Looking a bit tricky out west as
the trough drops south. The coastal areas for the most part will
be spared from precipitation, and with the latest guidance even
the middle Yukon valley will be spared, while the Upper Kuskokwim
will see the brunt of the system with a couple inches of rain
possible in the upslope areas of the western Alaska range.
Conditions are going to be a little unstable as well during the
afternoons and evenings, so expect at least some isolated
thunderstorm activity. A little warmer Wednesday then cooling the
rest of the week. winds generally light.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Increasing clouds over most of the
area as the low over the upper Yukon flats drops south to the
Alaska range and becomes stationary. Some showers developing over
the eastern Brooks range tonight and spreading south and southwest
as the upper level shortwave drops southwest across the area. Some
heavier rains expected around Denali in the western Alaska range,
but for the most part rainfall amounts will be light. Showers will
be mainly south and east of Fairbanks by late Thursday. Some
Isolated thunderstorms activity will be possible during the
afternoons and evenings. Winds will generally be light across the
area through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm conditions will continue until cooler
air from the arctic moves south over northern Alaska Wednesday and
persists through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front on
Wednesday. Low level moisture will increase over the interior and
will keep afternoon relative humidity values above 30 percent
Thursday and into the weekend. A thermal low over the southern
interior will be the focus for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No issues currently. The western Alaska range may see
a couple of inches of rain later in the week so will be keeping a
close watch on that area the next couple of model runs.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225

&&

SDB MAY 16

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