Small Craft Advisory 241, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKST Fri Nov 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Models in decent agreement through 60 hours. Upper level low near
Wrangel Island with cold air aloft parked over Eastern Russia.
Another upper level low south of the Aleutians make us the long
wave trough over the West Coast of Alaska. Upper level ridge
building in from the southeast over the eastern part of Alaska.

Upper level ridge builds in much stronger over the weekend. The
NAM suggests that a possibility of snow on Monday for the central
interior with the Easterly return flow from the southeast sets up.
The GFS and the ECMWF does not indicate much of any precipitation
in the central interior with the easterly wave.

The strong winds on the Arctic Coast has diminished substantially.
Some areas are experiencing decent snowfall such as Barrow which
has reduced the visibility but this should diminish by late
evening.

Temperatures aloft will stay warm through the weekend. Cold low in
Eastern Russia is not handled well by the models. The models have
been inconsistent in either advancing the cold front or keeping it
stationary in the Bering Strait. Current GFS brings the cold front
eastward by the middle of the week. So at this time we believe
that a colder air mass will move eastward across the state in the
middle of the week. Expect some light snow with the cold front but
very light accumulations.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF NOV 16