Gale Warning 138, NWS Fairbanks, AK

813 
FZAK51 PAFG 121223
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
323 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-130300-
323 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SLOWLY DRIFT S
WITH A 1006 MB CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 77N 165W BY SUN MORNING. A
TROUGH WITH 998 MB CENTERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND
THE CENTERS WILL DRIFT TOWARD WRANGEL ISLAND. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL PUSH S OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
MON MORNING WITH WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ225-130300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
323 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-130300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
323 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-130300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
323 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-130300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
323 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-130300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
323 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

SDB NOV 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKST Fri Nov 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Models in decent agreement through 60 hours. Upper level low near
Wrangel Island with cold air aloft parked over Eastern Russia.
Another upper level low south of the Aleutians make us the long
wave trough over the West Coast of Alaska. Upper level ridge
building in from the southeast over the eastern part of Alaska.

Upper level ridge builds in much stronger over the weekend. The
NAM suggests that a possibility of snow on Monday for the central
interior with the Easterly return flow from the southeast sets up.
The GFS and the ECMWF does not indicate much of any precipitation
in the central interior with the easterly wave.

The strong winds on the Arctic Coast has diminished substantially.
Some areas are experiencing decent snowfall such as Barrow which
has reduced the visibility but this should diminish by late
evening.

Temperatures aloft will stay warm through the weekend. Cold low in
Eastern Russia is not handled well by the models. The models have
been inconsistent in either advancing the cold front or keeping it
stationary in the Bering Strait. Current GFS brings the cold front
eastward by the middle of the week. So at this time we believe
that a colder air mass will move eastward across the state in the
middle of the week. Expect some light snow with the cold front but
very light accumulations.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF NOV 16