Small Craft Advisory 141, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
aloft...
A long wave trough extending from the pole south over mainland AK
will move slowly east over NW Canada by Fri. A ridge over Eastern
Russia will build east over Alaska late in the week. Cool and wet
conditions under the long wave trough now will trend drier and
warmer under the ridge later in the week.

A short wave trough from Deadhorse to Gambell will move to Barter
Island to Norton Sound by 4am Tue...to Arctic Village to the Yukon
Delta by 4pm Tue...and to Eagle to Bethel by 4pm Wed. Showers
along and south of the trough will diminish north of the trough
south of the Brooks Range.

surface...
A surface low near Nunivak Island will move near Anvik tonight and
then move east and weaken. An occluded front stretching from this
low to the Yukon Delta to Fairbanks to Northway will move to Anvik
to Fairbanks to Burwash Landing by 4am Tue...and to McGrath to
Eagle by 4pm Tue and then moving over the Alaska Range Tue night.
Southwest flow moving is causing rain and fog along this front
that will persist tonight and start to taper off late Tue as the
front moves east. Can expect .50-.75 inch of rain across southern
Interior...Alaska range and Norton Sound through Tue with the
front. Could see an additional half inch in the Alaska Range Tue
night as the front moves over the range.

A cold front stretching from Barter Island to Anaktuvuk Pass to
the Bering Strait will move to Old Crow to Tanana to the Yukon
Delta by 4am Tue...to Eagle to Anvik by 4pm Tue...and to Northway
to Denali by 4am Wed then stationary. Will see rain ahead of the
front over the interior...with snow level dropping to 2000 ft
along the front and to 1000 ft or less north of the front...though
Precipitation will end north of the front...except northerly
upslope flow over the north slopes of the Brooks Range will cause
1-2 inches of snow in zones 205 and 206 tonight. North winds
25-35 kt accompany the cold front along the West Coast and will
continue through Tue...while inland north winds 15-25kt occur
along and following the front.

A warm front will push into the western Arctic Coast Tue and to
the eastern North Slope Tue night. There will be rain and fog along
and following the front late Tue through Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
models in fair agreement through Wed then start to see more large
scale differences thu. prefer the gfs solution which appears to
initialize best with frontal locations at 18z. All models were
too slow bringing precipitation into the eastern Interior this
morning and may be a bit slow on causing exit of precipitation
from interior on Tue. This will cause west winds increasing to 30
kt in the eastern Arctic coast Tue night and Wed.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
none.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect .50-.75 inch of rain across southern interior and Norton
Sound through Tue. This will cause slight rises on rivers in those
areas next few days

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

JB SEP 16