Small Craft Advisory 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1030 AM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WITH THE
12Z GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL INITIALIZING WELL AGAINST THE 12Z
ANALYSIS AND VERIFYING WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DISPLAY REASONABLE SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
RANGE...HOWEVER THERE EXISTS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON SHORT WAVE
FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION THROUGH THE MID RANGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND A
COL FORMING OVER CENTRAL ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM AND ONLY MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AND A WEAK
CHINOOK EXPECTED SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS TO THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AS THE WAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTH. FORECASTED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE
SNOW OVER THE LOWER YK DELTA. RECENT WARM CONDITIONS OVER THESE
AREAS SHOULD LIMIT ICING POTENTIAL ON TRAVEL SURFACES.

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12
BELOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AND
NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
YUKON MONDAY. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA THE
YUKON...BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHWARD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE BUT REORIENTATE FROM A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION TO
A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN ALASKA AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN STORMINESS OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AS SYSTEMS RIDE FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THE BERING SEA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES BACK TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

CCC JAN 16