Brisk Wind Advisory 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

981 
FZAK52 PAFG 072358
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
258 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-081500-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 956 MB IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AT 965 MB FRI MORNING.
A 976 MB LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
BY SAT MORNING AT 980 MB...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AT
972 MB SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA.

$$

PKZ200-081500-
NORTON SOUND-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-081500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 30 KT.
BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 40 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-081500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-081500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
258 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1228 PM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD SHORT TERM CONTINUITY CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS OR SO...BUT MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SURFACE FEATURE
POSITIONS BY LATE FRIDAY...EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALIZATION WELL AT
18Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH ONLY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. THEY WERE A BIT SLOW YESTERDAY ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE UP THE WEST COAST OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MOVE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE. MOS GUIDANCE AND
ACTUAL MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE GFS ARE NOT MATCHING UP VERY WELL
OVER THE ARCTIC SO WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE MOS. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE MODELS AND MAINTAIN CONTINUITY BUT SPEED THINGS UP ABOUT 3
HOURS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS AND ELONGATED
TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. 486 DAM LOW
REMAINS OVER KAMCHATKA AND A 485 DAM LOW IS MOVING NORTH OVER
ATKA INTO THE BERING SEA AND WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW OVER
KAMCHATKA FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED UP THE WEST COAST LAST NIGHT IS OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WITH A 528 DAM LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED 523 DAM LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO
THE NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 516 DAM. A 534
DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER COOK INLET THIS EVENING AND MOVES NORTHWEST
AND MERGES WITH THE NEST SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. 551 DAM HIGH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST OVER THE INTERIOR...THEN NORTHWEST
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST TO LIE FROM
WATSON LAKE TO CHALKYITSIK TO BETTLES TO 540 DAM CENTER OVER
AMBLER TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 530 DAM LOW
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST CUTTING OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES
OVER THE EAGLE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN EAST TO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES BY LATE FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE GETS CUT OFF THE CENTER
OVER AMBLER BUILDS TO 547 DAM OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY
MORNING AND REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BUILDING TO 552 DAM BEFORE MOVING NORTHWEST. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND LOW PERSISTS OVER
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. A SURGE OF WARM AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOWS THAT MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA.

SURFACE...981 MB LOW OVER KAMCHATKA WILL BE ABSORBED BY 950 MB LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA TO BE OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING. 1016 MB
HIGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL BUILD TO 1020 MB AS IT
MOVES OVER BARROW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN IS ABSORBED BY 1040
MB HIGH OVER THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC. A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 980 MB...MOVING TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 980 MB...AND CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWEST TO 200 NM WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A 997 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY. RIDGING WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF
KUPARUK WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15
MPH BECOMING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC
BUILD SOUTH OVER THE COAST AND THE LOW IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC MOVES
NORTHEAST. A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM BARROW
EAST AS COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS PICKING UP OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTON SOUND AND ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND BUT WIND AROUND NORTON SOUND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT.
NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE...BUT IT WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
TONIGHT THEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN TO THE
LOWER YUKON TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS ON ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND. ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES UP A BIT TOMORROW THEN EVEN WARMER FRIDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONTINUED REALLY QUIET. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE
SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES  WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT
TREND DOWN A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REBOUNDING UP
AGAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
EXCEPT FROM THE SOUTH IN THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB JAN 16