Gale Warning 86, NWS Fairbanks, AK

054 
FZAK69 PAFG 172238
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-181215-
238 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 978 MB LOW CENTERED 150 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL WEAKEN TO A 985
MB LOW CENTERED 500 NM NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ500-181215-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
238 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-181215-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
238 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-181215-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
238 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT.
.SUN...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 16

390 
FZAK69 PAFG 181205
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
405 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-190200-
405 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW CENTERED 300 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL WEAKEN TO A 985
MB LOW CENTERED 500 NM NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE ARCTIC
COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ500-190200-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
405 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-190200-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
405 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-190200-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
405 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SEP 16

476 
FZAK69 PAFG 182246
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
246 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-191230-
246 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW CENTERED 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE
TO 450 NM NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA AS A 995 MB LOW BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN TO 1 995 MB LOW CENTERED 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF PRINCE PATRICK ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ500-191230-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
246 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT
DECREASING TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING 
TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-191230-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
246 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FOG.
EVENING. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-191230-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
246 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 16

922 
FZAK69 PAFG 182251 CCA
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
251 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

CORRECTED TYPO IN SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-191100-
251 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW CENTERED 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE
TO 450 NM NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA AS A 995 MB LOW BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF PRINCE PATRICK ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ500-191100-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
251 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT
DECREASING TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING 
TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-191100-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
251 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FOG.
EVENING. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-191100-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
251 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 16

324 
FZAK69 PAFG 182252 CCB 
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

CORRECTED TYPO IN SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-191100-
252 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW CENTERED 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE
TO 450 NM NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA AS A 995 MB LOW BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN TO A 985 MB LOW CENTERED 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF PRINCE PATRICK ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ500-191100-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
252 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT
DECREASING TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING 
TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-191100-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
252 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FOG.
EVENING. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-191100-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
252 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Air:
A deep upper low centered about 550 nm north northwest of Barrow
will move on a cyclonic wobbly path to 200 nm north northwest of
Barrow by Saturday afternoon, to 450 nm north of Deadhorse by
Sunday afternoon, and to 500 nm north of the Mackenzie River
Delta by Sunday afternoon. Several short wave troughs rotating
around the upper low will sweep across the Arctic coast
during the next 3 days. A weakening upper low near Nunivak Island
will move to near Dillingham by Saturday afternoon and into the
southeastern Gulf of Alaska by Sunday afternoon. A weak ridge over
the western Bering Sea will move eastward and build into a strong
ridge with the axis extending from the Chukotsk Peninsula to Dall
Point then southward across the western Alaska Peninsula by Sunday
afternoon. The ridge will continue to move eastward through Monday
afternoon, with the ridge axis extending from the Chukchi Sea to
the eastern north Gulf Coast then south southwestward into the
Gulf of Alaska by Sunday afternoon.

Surface...
Several low pressure centers will continue to wobble around
on a cyclonic path over the Arctic Ocean between latitudes 75N
and 79N and longitudes 140W and 170W through Sunday, becoming a
single 980 mb low centered 400 nm north of Demarcation Point by
late Sunday night. This will result in a series of weather fronts
moving eastward across the Arctic coast and a period of moderately
strong west winds across the Arctic coast, with the strongest
winds expected to be over the eastern Arctic coast. A weather
front and associated surface trough will move northeastward
into the northern Gulf of Alaska and into Norton Sound by
Sunday evening. Another weather front and surface trough
will move into the northern Bering Sea by Monday afternoon
and across Norton Sound Monday night.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...
The most important issue is the likelihood of elevated or high
surf conditions along parts of the Arctic Coast. From the Barrow
area west to Icy Cape, west winds are expected to increase to 25
to 30 mph late Saturday evening and continue through Sunday night.
The long fetch over ice free waters and the duration of the fetch
will produce waves of 8 to 10 feet offshore. Waves breaking
onshore will produce elevated surf, with a maximum storm surge of
0.7 to around 1 foot from midnight Saturday night to around noon
Monday. We will issue a special weather statement for elevated
surf conditions with a possibility of shoreline erosion. Stronger
winds are expected along the eastern Arctic coast including the
Kaktovik area. Winds in the Kaktovik area are expected to increase
to 25 to 35 mph by Sunday morning and increase to 30 to 40 mph by
Sunday afternoon and continuing through Sunday night before
diminishing Monday morning. The strong winds along with the length
and duration of the fetch will produce waves as high as 8 to 11
feet which will cause high surf conditions as they break onshore.
A maximum storm surge of around 1.4 to 1.5 feet is expected from
around 6 pm Sunday through 6 am Monday. The high waves and
elevated sea levels will produce high surf and beach erosion along
the shoreline north of the village of Kaktovik and along the north
shore of the spit on which the airport is located. Water levels
could rise to a high enough level to cause localized minor
flooding along the eastern end of the spit including the eastern
end of the Barter island airport runway. A high surf advisory will
be issued to address these expected conditions. Mainly snow or
mixed rain and snow along the coast from the Barrow area westward
will spread southward and eastward across the central and western
interior Arctic slope and the central and western Brooks Range
tonight, and taper off the isolated to scattered showers over most
areas by Saturday evening.

West coast...
Isolated to scattered showers are expected over most areas
south and east of Norton Sound tonight and Saturday. A
chance of rain over the central and northern parts of the
Seward Peninsula late tonight and Saturday. An increasing
chance of rain north of the Seward Peninsula tonight,
with rain likely in the lower Kobuk and Noatak valleys
Saturday. An increasing likelihood of rain over much of the
west coast beginning Sunday as the weather front approaches
from the west. South winds increasing to 30-35 kt in Norton
Sound Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday evening
could produce a period of elevated surf with a maximum storm
surge of 2.5 to 3 feet along the northern shore of Norton Sound
Monday afternoon and evening.

St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait coast...
South winds 25 to 35 kt expected on the Bering Strait coast
Monday through Monday night and on St Lawrence Island Sunday
evening through around noon Monday. Elevated surf is
expected on the south shore of St Lawrence Island late
Sunday night through around noon Monday. Rain likely
on the island Sunday through Monday and on the Bering
Strait coast Sunday night into Monday with the incoming
weather front.

Western interior...
isolated to scattered showers over most areas tonight
and Saturday. with rain likely in parts of the upper
Kobuk and Noatak valleys Saturday, tapering off to
isolated showers Saturday night.

Central and eastern interior...
Rain showers, snow showers, or mixed rain and snow showers
are expected over most of the Alaska Range tonight through
Sunday. Around an inch of snow may be possible at higher
elevations on the Denali Park road.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Elevated surf is expected along the northern shore of Norton
Sound is expected Monday and Monday evening, with a maximum
storm surge of 2.5 to 3 feet expected along the north shore of
Norton Sound. Elevated surf is expected along the south shore of
St Lawrence Island late Sunday night through around noon Monday.
See main discussion for shorter term coastal hazard potential.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
High Surf Advisory for AKZ204.

&&

RF SEP 16