Gale Warning 45, NWS Fairbanks, AK

960 
FZAK51 PAFG 221217
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
317 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-230330-
317 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 995 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO 90 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT HOPE
AT 1002 MB MON AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTHWEST TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND BY TUE. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ225-230330-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
317 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-230330-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
317 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-230330-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
317 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-230330-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
317 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER NOON. 
FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-230330-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
317 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

CF/JK FEB 16

098 
FZAK51 PAFG 222309
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
209 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-231415-
209 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 998 MB LOW 50 NM E OF POINT HOPE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO 200 NM
NW OF POINT HOPE BY 4 AM TUE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ225-231415-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
209 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. FOG.
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-231415-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
209 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. FOG AND BLOWING
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-231415-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
209 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. FOG AND BLOWING
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-231415-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
209 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-231415-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
209 PM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

RM/ET FEB 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
505 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALASKA...THESE INCLUDE STRONG GUSTS...SNOW...AND POOR
VISIBILITY. MOST NOTABLY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS SOUTH OF BIRCH LAKE...DENALI...EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE...AND THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE. A MODERATE SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED IN UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK
VALLEYS NORTH OF SHUNGNAK. POOR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST SOUTHWEST OF ICY CAPE AS STRONG WINDS ARE
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HRS BEFORE
THE GUIDANCE BEGAN TO SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCES IN
AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF FEATURES.

.ALOFT...
A WEAKENING SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR BRISTOL BAY WITH A MID-LEVEL
LOW NEAR 507 DAM. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW CENTER DEVELOPS BY THE GULF OF
ANADYR. SAID LOW WILL STAY RELATIVE STATIONARY THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE YUKON
TERRITORY INTO NORTHERN AK AND IT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24-HRS. MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF MAINLAND AK BY TUE.

.SURFACE...
A 982 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE SFC
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA BY MON MORNING WHILE WEAKENING TO
998 MB. A NEW SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TONIGHT AND
REACH 993 MB BY EARLY MON MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
TO 90 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT HOPE AT 1001 MB MON AFTERNOON AS THE
FORMER LOW DIMINISHES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHWEST TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND BY TUE. A RIDGE OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA AND THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF BIRCH LAKE ACROSS THE
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. DELTA JUNCTION ASOS HAS BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 40 TO
50 MPH TODAY...REACHING 51 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
RICHARDSON AND PARKS HIGHWAY CORRIDORS...HOWEVER...THEY HAVEN\T
BEEN REALIZED YET. SUPPORT ALOFT IS STILL CONDUCIVE FOR CHINOOK
WINDS SO WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WAS ISSUED FOR NORTH OF
SHUNGNAK. WHEREIN...4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING MODEST QPF IN THIS AREA. SNOW
PRODUCTION SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. OF WHICH...THE GFS IS SHOWING THE
MOST SUPPORT FOR A SNOW EVENT...WITH A MODEST CROSS-HAIR
SIGNATURE PRESENT OVER THE AMBLER AREA.

ELSEWHERE...GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
AND STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF ICY CAPE. WINDS HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OBSCURING VISIBILITIES.
WEB CAMS CONFIRM AND AN ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR BLSN. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF POINT LAY THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH. THE FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN THE WORST CONDITIONS OCCURRING MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ217.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

FEB 16