Gale Warning 30, NWS Fairbanks, AK

366 
FZAK52 PAFG 281317
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-290430-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 968 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST NEAR BETHEL THU MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AS
A 975 MB LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ200-290430-
NORTON SOUND-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG...SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.  
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT.   
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-290430-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.   
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. FOG...SNOW.  
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG...SNOW.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT.   
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-290430-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT N WINDS 10 KT NORTH OF CAPE
ESPENBERG. FOG...SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT NE WINDS 10 KT NORTH OF CAPE
ESPENBERG. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 5 KT.   
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT.   
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT.   
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.   
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-290430-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. WINDS STRONGEST WELL OFFSHORE. BLOWING
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT FROM CAPE THOMPSON TO
CAPE KRUSENSTERN. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG.   
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.   
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CF/DJH JAN 16

452 
FZAK52 PAFG 282329
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-291430-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 971 MB LOW CENTERED 150 NM SOUTH OF DALL POINT WILL WEAKEN TO A
982 MB LOW CENTERED 50 NM WEST OF DALL POINT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND NORTHERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ200-291430-
NORTON SOUND-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-291430-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. FOG...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT NEAR THE BERING STRAIT.
FOG...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-291430-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT.
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-291430-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RF/NS JAN 16

776 
FZAK52 PAFG 291149
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 AM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-300300-
249 AM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 978 MB LOW CENTERED 75 NM WEST OF CAPE ROMANZOF WILL WEAKEN TO
A TROUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND NORTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-300300-
NORTON SOUND-
249 AM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-300300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
249 AM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-300300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
249 AM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 10 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-300300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
249 AM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CF/JK JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
234 PM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

UPDATED MARINE HAZARDS

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NORTH OF
THE ARCTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TONIGHT...AND
ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 54N/172W WILL MOVE EAST THEN RECURVE NORTHWARD TO BE
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS NORTHWARD MOVING LOW CENTER
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING AND SWING NORTHWARD TO NORTON SOUND AND EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT MODEL RUNS AGREE
FAIRLY WELL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

SURFACE...
MODERATELY STRONG EAST WINDS ARE CONTINUING ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
FROM THE DEADHORSE AREA EAST AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTING TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST OF POINT THOMPSON INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY...POSSIBLY BOOSTED SOME BY THE NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS AND AN
END TO THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR LOW
VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN ZONES 202-203-204.

STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW ARE CONTINUING
OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FROM ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND NORTH AND WEST DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN DECREASE
SLOWLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD TO NEAR
DALL POINT BY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW TO
THE BERING STRAIT...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON,,,WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM12 MOS WIND
GUIDANCE FOR GAMBELL AND TIN CITY CONTINUES TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS
TOO HIGH...YESTERDAYS NAM12 GUIDANCE DID NOT VERIFY WELL.
A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INTERIOR...TANANA VALLEY JET WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DIMINISH AS THE BIG DELTA-NORTHWAY PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE DECREASES. EAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND
45 MPH IN THE DELTA JUNCTION/FORT GREELY AREA.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN IN EASTERN ALASKA RANGES WEST OF THE TOK
CUTOFF THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL...MAXIMUM WINDS ALOFT AT 800 MB ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE RUN AROUND 40 KT.

NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABOUT
AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND IMMEDIATELY NEARBY
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE.

TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...
CURRENT GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS CONTINUE YESTERDAYS TREND OF
BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ALASKA MAINLAND
BY SUNDAY...WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN BERING SEA OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE LOW PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD BRING
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND POSSIBLY THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE YUKON DELTA. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATER IN THE WEEK BUT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
LIKELY CONTINUING. THE CURRENT CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6-10 DAY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA...AND A 30 TO 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECAST INDICATES POSITIVE ANOMALIES OF 9 TO
12 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER ALMOST ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR WEEK 1.
FOR WEEK 2...POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGE FROM 1-3 DEGREES
CELSIUS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TO AROUND 6 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER
THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER
MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR WEEKS 1 AND 2.

 &&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240.
&&

RF JAN 16