Brisk Wind Advisory 50, NWS Fairbanks, AK

380 
FZAK52 PAFG 272356
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
256 PM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-281500-
256 PM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 968 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DALL
POINT AS A 970 MB LOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN
INTO A TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ200-281500-
NORTON SOUND-
256 PM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-281500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
256 PM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...N WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-281500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
256 PM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-281500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
256 PM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

RF/NS JAN 16

366 
FZAK52 PAFG 281317
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-290430-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 968 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
COAST NEAR BETHEL THU MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AS
A 975 MB LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ200-290430-
NORTON SOUND-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG...SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.  
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT.   
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-290430-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.   
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. FOG...SNOW.  
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG...SNOW.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT.   
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-290430-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT N WINDS 10 KT NORTH OF CAPE
ESPENBERG. FOG...SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT NE WINDS 10 KT NORTH OF CAPE
ESPENBERG. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 5 KT.   
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT.   
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT.   
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.   
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-290430-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
417 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. WINDS STRONGEST WELL OFFSHORE. BLOWING
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT FROM CAPE THOMPSON TO
CAPE KRUSENSTERN. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG.   
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.   
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CF/DJH JAN 16

452 
FZAK52 PAFG 282329
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-291430-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 971 MB LOW CENTERED 150 NM SOUTH OF DALL POINT WILL WEAKEN TO A
982 MB LOW CENTERED 50 NM WEST OF DALL POINT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND NORTHERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ200-291430-
NORTON SOUND-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-291430-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. FOG...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT NEAR THE BERING STRAIT.
FOG...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-291430-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT.
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-291430-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
229 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RF/NS JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
409 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH POSITION OF MAJOR FEATURES IF
NOT AS WELL WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE MAJOR FEATURES AT 00Z WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURES AROUND 3 TO 5 MB TOO HIGH ON THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND AROUND 3 MB TOO HIGH WITH THE
LOW SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
OF ALASKA INITIALIZED AND VERIFIED WELL. THE 00Z MODELS DID SEEM
TO VERIFY BETTER AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND EASTERN ALASKA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND
REORIENTATE FROM A NORTH SOUTH AXIS TO A NEGATIVE TILT WITH AXIS
FROM BARTAR ISLAND TO SPOKANE WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MIGRATE TO THE EAST TO BE DUTCH HARBOR
THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THE SURFACE A TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE BERING STRAIT
AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL TIGHTEN MORE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF PUSHES NORTHWEST TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
AND AS A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER SIBERIA.
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND LOOKS GOOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH CONTINUE. SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO IMPROVE HOWEVER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY.

ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE VERY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS NEAR BARTAR
ISLAND HAVE DIMINISHED AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AS A VERY
COMPACT LOW JUST NORTH OF POINT THOMPSON CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE NORTH. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO NO LONGER WARRANT THE
BLIZZARD WARNING WHICH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE THROUGH NOON TODAY.

IN THE INTERIOR...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SUMMITS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE AND THE NEAR 80N AND THE DATE LINE
INCREASES. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
SUMMITS IN BLOWING SNOW. VERY SHARP AND SHALLOW INVERSIONS REMAIN
OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH WINDS ALOFT FAILING TO MIX SIGNIFICANTLY
AT VALLEY LEVELS. LOCATIONS ON THE HILLS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET HIGHER ARE BREEZY AND NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN CALM AND
COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC JAN 16