Gale Warning 169, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
417 AM AKST Sat Dec 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Continue to perform well with the ongoing system, and
they look maintain good agreement through the near term. They are
however showing a trend of diverging in the midrange, though not
significantly on the 31/00Z run. Initialized well against the
31/06Z surface analysis with only minor differences in the central
pressures of the major features. Going to lean on continuity again
today and make only minor adjustments to the database to match
what is ongoing.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A shortwave is moving across central and
eastern interior this morning and will exit the area late this
morning. A the state and will move from the west coast to the
central interior this morning, and to the AlCan border later this
afternoon. Ridging that extends northwest from a 579 dam high over
the northeast Pacific is rotating over the west coast and will
move over the interior this afternoon with 540 dam heights
reaching north to the Brooks Range. A 483 dam low over the western
Bering Sea will move north into Siberia as it rides up the west
side of the ridge into the arctic. A shortwave will move northeast
over northwest Alaska Sunday, and move over the central and
eastern arctic Sunday night. The ridge will slide slowly to the
east with the axis extending north over 145W by Monday morning.
Another shortwave will move over the northwest coast Monday night
and work east Tuesday. At 850 hpa...A slight warming trend through
Sunday afternoon will push the temperatures over the central
interior to around zero celsius Sunday and Monday, then a cooling
trend through mid week.

Surface...Dominant features are the 1046 mb high over the
northeast Pacific, a 967 mb low in the western Bering Sea, and a
trough lying west to east across the arctic with several lows
around 1000 mb that will merge into a 997 mb low that will move
east, then northeast into Canada. The ridge will slowly rotate
east as a 1046 mb center develops over the Copper River Basin this
afternoon. The ridging will stall over the eastern third of the
state and extend north to Demarcation point and northwest to the
Kotzebue Sound. The low in the Western Bering Sea will move north
up the western flank of the ridge into Siberia with a frontal
system extending from the Gulf of Anadyr to the central Aleutians
by late this afternoon. The low moves into central Siberia by
sunday morning with the front extending from Wrangel Island to
Point Hope, then southwest to a low over the western Aleutians.
The front will slowly work east and over the ridge as the ridge
slides east and pulls back to the south. The front will impact the
west coast by Sunday morning and slowly move inland as it rides up
over the ridge and will impact the central and eastern interior
midweek. The ridge will reorient to east-west Wednesday over the
southern half of the mainland.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Conditions have improved so will
get rid of all but the Winter Weather Advisory for zone 204. Still
some blowing snow and snow but improved conditions through Sunday.
A bit warmer on the eastern arctic coast, otherwise no significant
changes. Generally southwest winds persisting at 10 to 20 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Front dragging up the coast
will bring more snow/rain to the area as warm air surges north to
Norton Sound again. Heavy snows possible again over the south
facing slopes on the Seward Peninsula and the western Brooks
Range. Winds swinging around this morning to east and southeast
over much of the area with coastal areas seeing winds of 25 to 40
mph gusting to around 60 mph in some areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Conditions improving this morning
as the winds and snow diminish. Some lingering snow showers
through the afternoon, but for the most part the storm will be
over in most areas around noon. Temperatures cooling across the
interior. The next storm to impact the area will be a front
bringing snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-
AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB DEC 16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
942 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     HEAVY SNOW       FOX                     64.96N 147.62W
12/31/2016  M2.5 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORT AT 7AM THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH FOX OF
            2.5 INCHES OF SNOW. EVENT TOTAL OF 11.9
            INCHES. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT
            WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

HFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1222 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 PM     HEAVY SNOW       15 SSW RAMPART          65.18N 150.22W
12/31/2016  M26.0 INCH       YUKON-KOYUKUK      AK   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM NEAR EUREKA OF A STORM TOTAL
            SNOW FALL OF 26 INCHES.

&&

HFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
124 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 NNW COLLEGE           64.89N 147.85W
12/31/2016  E14.5 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            COLLEGE HILLS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH 10AM SAT 14.5
            INCHES.

&&

EPLUMB