Gale Warning 161, NWS Fairbanks, AK

223 
FZAK52 PAFG 271549 CCA
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
649 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-280400-
649 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 988 MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO KOYUK BY 3AM
WED AS A 1000 MB LOW AND TO BETTLES BY 3PM WED. A WEAK LOW SOUTH
OF KAMCHATKA WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH WED TO BE A 940 MB LOW
IN THE NORTHWEST BERING BY 3PM WED AND MOVE TO NEAR ANADYR AS A
955 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...AND TO JUST NORTHWEST OF WAINWRIGHT AS A
987 MB LOW BY 3PM FRI.


$$

PKZ200-280400-
NORTON SOUND-
649 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2016

.TODAY...NW WINDS 10 KT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...SE WINDS 40 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.  BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-280400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
649 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. FREEZING RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-280400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
649 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT.  BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...E WINDS 50 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-280400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
649 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...N WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

DEC 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
446 AM AKST Tue Dec 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave trough over mainland Alaska will progress east into
Canada Wed as strong ridge builds over the eastern Bering Sea and
West Coast of Alaska. The ridge then builds east over mainland AK
Thu and then remains in place and amplifies further on the
weekend. Near normal temperatures under the long wave trough will
continue through Wed followed by a strong warming Thu and Fri.

A strong jet streak now visible on satellite just east of Japan
will move northeast and develop into a very strong short wave
trough over Kamchatka tonight...move into the Western Bering
Wed...along the West Coast Thu...and to the eastern Interior Fri.
As this short wave moves east across Alaska through this ridge
Thu and Fri will see a rapid warming to well above normal with
heavy snow...strong winds and blizzard conditions spreading east
across Ak with the short wave. Freezing rain is possible SW of
Kotzebue and McGrath on Thu with this next feature. Conditions
will remain warm and windy through the weekend.

Surface...
A 994 mb low in the southeast Beaufort Sea will move east
tonight.

a 988 mb vertically stacked low over the Seward Peninsula will
move to Koyuk by 3am Wed as a 1000 mb low...to Bettles by 3pm wed
as a 1012 mb low...and to Fort Yukon as a 1020 mb low by 3am Thu.
An old occluded front stretching south from this low will move
over the Western Interior today...to the Central Interior
tonight...and over the Eastern Interior Wed. Light snow associated
with the low and front now over the west coast from Kotzebue
south will spread east with the front and cause several inches of
snow inland.

An arctic cold front stretching from Old Crow west to Kotzebue
then south to the Yukon Delta will move to Eagle to Kotzebue to
Bettles by 2pm Tue...to Eagle to Koyuk to McGrath by 3am Wed...and
then moving rapidly to east to Eagle to Big Delta by 3pm Wed...and
east of the Alcan Border Wed night. There are flurries or light
snow showers along this feature that will increase to widespread
snow over the Interior. Expect Several inches of snow with the
front over the Interior tonight and Wed. There are also NE winds
15-25kt with this feature over the south slopes of the Brooks
range with gusts to 45 kt near Point Hope and north winds 25 kt
with the front along the west coast. Those winds will persist
today then begin to decrease tonight. Advisories for Blowing snow
in NW Alaska will end by this evening as the winds decrease.

A weak low south of Kamchatka will move into the western Bering
tonight and deepen rapidly through Wed to a 940 mb low in the
northwest Bering by 3pm Wed...to near Anadyr as a 955 mb low by
3pm Thu...and to just northwest of Wainwright as a 987 mb low
Fri. An associated front will move to the central Bering by 3pm
Wed...to Anadyr to Gambell to the Yukon Delta by 3am Thu...and to
Point Hope to Bethel by 3pm Thu...to Barrow to Barter Island to
Big Delta by 3am Fri...then east of the Alcan Border Fri pm.
Expect have snow with the front with 6-12 inches possible.
Rain or Freezing rain will be possible southwest of Kotzebue to
McGrath Thu and Thu night.

Expect Gale force winds with the front to spread northeast across
Alaska with the front. This will bring near blizzard conditions to
most of the west coast Wed night and Thu...and to the western
Interior Thu and Thu night and to the Eastern Interior Thu night
and Fri. This could cause major travel hazards...and could cause
power outages in the Interior where the winds could blow trees
over Thu night and Fri.

Southwest gale force winds following the front over the west coast
Thu could increase to storm force Late Thu and Fri. This could
cause a storm surge of 4-6 feet along much of the west coast of
Alaska from the Yukon Delta to Point Hope Thu night and Fri. At
this time unsure how much of this rise in sea level will propagate
beneath the thin and unconsolidated ice pack that is present
along most of the west coast. Given the severe weather
accompanying the rise in sea heights it will be difficult to
prepare ...people should prepare for minor flooding by moving
boats and other belongings away from the coast on Tue and Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models Initialize well at surface and aloft...and show similar
solutions through 3am Wed. Models continue to show similar long
wave pattern but differ some on timing and strength of short wave
troughs from Wed onward. After 3am Wed the GFS and EMCF deepen the
low entering the Western Bering Sea much more rapidly than the
NAM. Since this is the main feature for Wed and Thu...it is
originating outside of the NAM domain and the NAM is the odd model
out...will go with the GFS and ECMF solutions from Wed onward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Southwest gale force winds following the front over the west coast
Thu could increase to storm force Late Thu night and Fri. This
could cause a storm surge of 4-6 feet along much of the west coast
of Alaska from the Yukon Delta to Point Hope Thu night and Fri. At
this time unsure how much of this rise in sea level will propagate
beneath the thin and unconsolidated ice pack that is present along
most of the West Coast. Given the severe weather accompanying the
rise in sea heights it will be difficult to take action during the
storm. People should prepare for minor flooding by moving boats
and other belongings away from the coast on Tue and Wed. The worst
conditions Thu night and Fri are expected at Gambell and the
Bering Strait where there is less ice.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.
&&

JB DEC 16