Gale Warning 159, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
233 PM AKST Mon Dec 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z models initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains
minimal in the short and mid range and is reasonable in the long
range. Models continue to indicate the potential for a significant
storm developing in the southern Bering Sea Wednesday and moving
north with heavy snow, strong winds and freezing rain over the
west coast and western interior Wednesday night and Thursday and
over the central interior Thursday.

Aloft, at 500 HPA, 488 DAM low near Demarcation Point will
continue to deepen and dig to the south and west along an upper
level trough that currently extends from Demarcation Point to
near Point Hope, and then southward through the eastern Bering
Sea. A 502 DAM low forms just north of the Bering Strait Tuesday
morning and will provide a favorable upper level environment for a
broad area low pressure to develop on the surface along the west
coast. A sharp short wave forming on the southern portion of this
low will sweep into the west coast tuesday and into the western
interior Wednesday. The surface low will drift eastward to near
Ambler Wednesday morning as the associated front weakens and moves
into the central interior Wednesday. This low and front will be
the focal point for light snow generally 1 to 2 inches or less over
the western interior and 2 to 4 inches of snow in the western
Brooks Range. Ongoing Winter Storm Warnings for the Bering Strait
and near Point Hope remain in effect with near blizzard conditions
and very strong winds. Winds will diminish early this evening over
St Lawrence Island and later this evening over the Bering Strait
Coast however the very strong winds and near blizzard conditions
are expected to continue through Tuesday afternoon near Point
Hope. Winter Weather Advisories for blowing snow continue for the
Western Brooks Range north of Noatak and Ambler and for the
western north slope west of Point Lay through Tuesday afternoon.

Attention quickly turns to a potent storm forecast to impact
the west coast and interior later this week. A large amplitude
but rather flat topped ridge builds rapidly out of the northern
Pacific into the central Aleutians and over the eastern Bering Sea
Tuesday and Wednesday and then builds over southwest Alaska
Wednesday as a 480 DAM low races north and east to be centered
over the western Bering Sea Wednesday night just southwest of the
Gulf of Anadyr Thursday. This combined with a favorable jet
configuration will create an environment favorable for explosive
cyclogenisis over the western Bering Sea Wednesday. Storm force
winds are likely to develop south of St Lawrence Island late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning with max gale or Storm force
winds developing over the lower YK Delta, western Norton Sound
and the Bering Strait Thursday. Heavy falling snow combined with
the strong winds will likely create blizzard or near blizzard
conditions over the west coast south of the Bering Strait
Thursday morning and then north of the Bering Strait Thursday
afternoon. Warm air aloft will present the additional hazard of
producing freezing rain south of the Seward Peninsula and west of
Mcgrath Thursday afternoon and night. Heavy snow along with
blustery winds will move into the central interior Thursday
afternoon and evening with the heaviest snow expected Friday
morning in Fairbanks. Strong winds will push into the interior
likely causing poor visibiltiy in blowing snow especially over
summits Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...South and west facing
coasts with minimal ice pack could see high surf and possible
beach erosion beginning Wednesday night and continuing through
Friday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.
&&

CCC DEC 16