Gale Warning 153, NWS Fairbanks, AK

009 
FZAK52 PAFG 242341
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-251215-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1005 MB LOW NEAR BANKS ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST. A SECOND 1004 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO
100 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN DISSIPATE. A 964 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
NORTH TO BE 250 NM NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL ISLAND AS A 967 MB LOW
SUNDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ200-251215-
NORTON SOUND-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-251215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING FOG AND BLOWING
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-251215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-251215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

DEC 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
445 AM AKST Sat Dec 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern now consists of a ridge over the Gulf of
Alaska and mainland Alaska with a trough over northeast Russia and
the Bering Sea. This pattern is progressive with the trough moving
over mainland Alaska by Mon...and then moving into western Canada
by the middle of next week and being replaced by . This means that
the current warmer than normal conditions across northern Alaska
will continue through the weekend and then cool to near normal by
the middle next week.

A short wave from north Demarcation Point to Fairbanks will move
east of the Alcan Border by noon Sat. Very light snow or flurries
along and east of the trough will diminish west of the trough.

Surface...
A 1003 mb low 300 nm north of Demarcation Point will move
northeast. This is causing snow and blowing snow along with
southwest winds 20g30kt over the Eastern Arctic Coast that will
decrease this morning as the lows moves NE.

A second 1003 mb low 200 nm northwest of Barrow will move to 100
nm north of Barrow as a 1005 mb low by 3pm Sat...and to 100 nm
north of Prudhoe Bay as a 1006 mb low by 3am Sun and then
dissipating. A warm front from the low to Barrow will move
northeast of Barrow by 3pm Sat and then dissipate. Light snow and
southwest winds 15-25 kt with the front are causing reduced
visibility from Barrow west that will persist this morning and
then decrease this afternoon as the front moves offshore. Could
get 1 inch of snow with this.

A cold front stretching west from the low to Wrangel Island will
move to lie from Barrow to Wainwright west by 3am Sun...and then
stretch east along the Arctic Coast by 3pm Sun...and moving south
to lie along the Brooks Range Sun Night. Expect light snow or
flurries with this cold front. Winds will turn north with the
front then northeast on Sun.

A 970 mb low in the southern Bering Sea will move to the central
Bering as a 964 mb Low by 3pm Sat...then drift south Sat night and
Sun. A strong occluded front stretching east from this low to the
southeast Bering Sea will move to St Matthew Island to Bristol Bay
by 3pm Sat...to Gambell to the Yukon Delta to another low in
Bristol Bay by 3am Sun...and to Gambell to Bethel by 3pm
Sun...then persist into Mon. This has spread light snow the Yukon
Delta and St Lawrence Nunivak island now...and will spread snow
north to a Bering Strait to Anvik line by 3pm Sat...and to the
Bering Strait to Shageluk by 3am Sun and to the Bering Strait to
Golovin to Shageluk by 3pm Sun. Expect 2-4 inches of snow zones
213 and 214 through Sun along with low visibility. In zones 211
and 214 expect 1-2 inches tonight through Sun along with some
blowing snow and reduced visibility. Expect east to northeast
winds ahead of the front over the northern Bering Sea.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well at 500 mb and show similar solutions through
3pm Sun and then ecmf shows heights falling over northern Alaska
more than GFS. At the surface models initialize about 4 mb too
weak with the high pressure over the southeast Interior at 06Z.
Expect pressure to remain a bit higher than models indicate for
Sat and will adjust easterly drainage winds up 5kt in the in the
Interior today. The GFS moves precipitation further north over
western Alaska tonight and Sun than the ECMF and NAM. Favor the
GFS as it as a strong south flow north over the West Coast tonight
and Sun should push moisture at least as far north as the GFS
shows which is the Seward Peninsula.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB DEC 16