Brisk Wind Advisory 228, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
445 AM AKST Sat Dec 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern now consists of a ridge over the Gulf of
Alaska and mainland Alaska with a trough over northeast Russia and
the Bering Sea. This pattern is progressive with the trough moving
over mainland Alaska by Mon...and then moving into western Canada
by the middle of next week and being replaced by . This means that
the current warmer than normal conditions across northern Alaska
will continue through the weekend and then cool to near normal by
the middle next week.

A short wave from north Demarcation Point to Fairbanks will move
east of the Alcan Border by noon Sat. Very light snow or flurries
along and east of the trough will diminish west of the trough.

Surface...
A 1003 mb low 300 nm north of Demarcation Point will move
northeast. This is causing snow and blowing snow along with
southwest winds 20g30kt over the Eastern Arctic Coast that will
decrease this morning as the lows moves NE.

A second 1003 mb low 200 nm northwest of Barrow will move to 100
nm north of Barrow as a 1005 mb low by 3pm Sat...and to 100 nm
north of Prudhoe Bay as a 1006 mb low by 3am Sun and then
dissipating. A warm front from the low to Barrow will move
northeast of Barrow by 3pm Sat and then dissipate. Light snow and
southwest winds 15-25 kt with the front are causing reduced
visibility from Barrow west that will persist this morning and
then decrease this afternoon as the front moves offshore. Could
get 1 inch of snow with this.

A cold front stretching west from the low to Wrangel Island will
move to lie from Barrow to Wainwright west by 3am Sun...and then
stretch east along the Arctic Coast by 3pm Sun...and moving south
to lie along the Brooks Range Sun Night. Expect light snow or
flurries with this cold front. Winds will turn north with the
front then northeast on Sun.

A 970 mb low in the southern Bering Sea will move to the central
Bering as a 964 mb Low by 3pm Sat...then drift south Sat night and
Sun. A strong occluded front stretching east from this low to the
southeast Bering Sea will move to St Matthew Island to Bristol Bay
by 3pm Sat...to Gambell to the Yukon Delta to another low in
Bristol Bay by 3am Sun...and to Gambell to Bethel by 3pm
Sun...then persist into Mon. This has spread light snow the Yukon
Delta and St Lawrence Nunivak island now...and will spread snow
north to a Bering Strait to Anvik line by 3pm Sat...and to the
Bering Strait to Shageluk by 3am Sun and to the Bering Strait to
Golovin to Shageluk by 3pm Sun. Expect 2-4 inches of snow zones
213 and 214 through Sun along with low visibility. In zones 211
and 214 expect 1-2 inches tonight through Sun along with some
blowing snow and reduced visibility. Expect east to northeast
winds ahead of the front over the northern Bering Sea.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well at 500 mb and show similar solutions through
3pm Sun and then ecmf shows heights falling over northern Alaska
more than GFS. At the surface models initialize about 4 mb too
weak with the high pressure over the southeast Interior at 06Z.
Expect pressure to remain a bit higher than models indicate for
Sat and will adjust easterly drainage winds up 5kt in the in the
Interior today. The GFS moves precipitation further north over
western Alaska tonight and Sun than the ECMF and NAM. Favor the
GFS as it as a strong south flow north over the West Coast tonight
and Sun should push moisture at least as far north as the GFS
shows which is the Seward Peninsula.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB DEC 16