Gale Warning 118, NWS Fairbanks, AK

053 
FZAK51 PAFG 262216
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
216 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-271230-
216 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 965 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN SIBERIA WILL DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL REMAIN IN THIS AREA THROUGH SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC ON FRI AT 1040
MB.

$$

PKZ225-271230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
216 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FOG.
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-271230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
216 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-271230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
216 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2016

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-271230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
216 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
FREEZING FOG. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-271230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
216 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

NTS OCT 16

850 
FZAK51 PAFG 271121
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
321 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-280015-
321 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 961 MB LOW CENTERED 600 NM W OF POINT HOPE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 976 MB BY 4 AM FRI. A WEAK 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THU AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI.


$$

PKZ225-280015-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
321 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-280015-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
321 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-280015-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
321 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-280015-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
321 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-280015-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
321 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

RF/JK OCT 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
441 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A high amplitude long wave pattern exists with a deep trough over
the Bering Sea and NW Pacific with a ridge over the Alcan Border.
This pattern will persist through the weekend with a series of
very strong short wave troughs rotating north across the Bering
Sea through this pattern. This will cause rapid cyclogenisis in
the Bering through the weekend with a series of very strong
surface lows developing under these short wave through the
weekend.

Surface...
A 954 mb low 150 nm west of Anadyr will move to 300 nm northwest
of Anadyr by 4am Wed as a 960 mb low...and to 400 nm northwest of
Anadyr as a 967 mb low by 4pm Wed. A strong occluded front extends
NW from this low to Wrangel Island to the Bering strait to the
Yukon Delta. The front will move to Wainwright to McGrath by 4am
Wed and then weaken and move east to Barter Island to McGrath by
4pm Wed. Southeast winds gusting 50 to 60 mph along the front will
decrease as the front moves inland this evening. Between one
quarter and one half inch of rain will fall along the front
through tonight...changing to freezing rain in the SW Interior and
to snow north of McGrath to Kotzebue. Could see up to 4 inches of
snow north of McGrath to Kotzebue along with areas of blowing snow
and low visibility in the NW Interior. Winds are turning S-SW and
dropping to 20-30 mph west of the front and rain change to
showers.

A trough moving into the SE Bering Sea tonight will move to the
Bering Strait to Yukon Delta Wed and then elongate north along
the West Coast Wed night. There will be scattered showers along.

A frontal wave developing in the NW Gulf of Ak tonight and Wed
will push more moisture and showers nw over SW Alaska Wed pm and
Thu. This will bring more rain.

A strong low will develop rapidly in the western Bering Sea on
Thu. An occluded front with this low will move to the central
Bering Thu pm...then stretch from Cape Navarin to St Lawrence
Island to a frontal wave in the southeast Bering by 4am Fri...
with the frontal wave moving to just west of Gambell by 4pm Fri
with a front from Gambell to the southeast Bering. This will
bring strong SE winds and possible high surf to the west coast
Fri. The frontal wave could move in a much different path so there
is slight possibility of coastal flooding along the west coast Fri
into Sat...but it is very uncertain at this point in time .

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and similar solution through 4am Thu.
After that time start to see difference in timing with strength of
features in the Bering and Chukchi seas. At this time will use the
faster and deeper GFS solutions for Thu and Fri due to the strong
flow aloft and strong dynamics present which will lean towards
deeper features. By the weekend see significant differences
between GFS and ECMF on location and strength of features so favor
using a mix of GFS and ECMF ensemble solutions for locations of
features with the deterministic solutions for strength of
features and wind strength. Will need to closely monitor future
model run for Fri and Sat because the GFS solution might argue
for S to SE winds and possible high surf along the West Coast
while the ECMF would argue for much stronger winds from the S-SW
and possible Coastal Flooding. Differences are too significant at
the point to call it one way or the other so will need to pay
close attention to Fri and Sat solutions.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High Surf along the west coast ending tonight with the exception
of zone 207 at Kivalina and Point Hope where strong SE winds will
keep high surf in those locations through Wed.

Strong SE winds and possible high surf along the West Coast Fri
and Sat. The frontal wave could move in a much different path so
there is slight possibility of coastal flooding along the West
Coast Fri into Sat...but it is very uncertain at this point in
time due to the uncertainty of the frontal wave location.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ208-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ227.

High Wind Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Storm Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225.
&&

JB OCT 16