Gale Warning 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
401 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND ALASKA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVER ALASKA THROUGH THIS FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THROUGH FRI WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW....WHILE THE ARCTIC SLOPE REMAINS NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN SOUTH
OVER ALASKA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 0C OVER THE SW INTERIOR TO -8C
OVER NE AK. WILL SE TEMPERATURES COOL A 2-4C TONIGHT AND SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO
THE SW INTERIOR AND YUKON DELTA TODAY BUT THAT CHANCE SHOULD END
BY TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS COOLS.

SURFACE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST INTO THE
YUKON TERRITORY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED. THIS WILL CAUSE
EAST WINDS TO PERSIST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
STRATUS FOG AND FLURRIES FROM WAINWRIGHT EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS
AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING EAST WINDS OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA THAT WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A 977 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE.

A 981 MB LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AS A 983 MB LOW BY 3AM TUE AND TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AS A
984 MB LOW BY 3AM WED THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE. EXPECT SNOW NEAR THE
LOW CENTER WITH SEVERAL INCHES FALLING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN IN ZONES 214 AND 215 TODAY AS WELL. EXPECT WINDS OF
20-30 KT NEAR THE LOW THAT WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW ALONG MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW OVER ZONES 214 AND 213 TUE AND
TUE NIGHT EAST OF THE LOW AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN ZONES 214 AND 215 TODAY AS
WELL.

STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL DECREASE TODAY

THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE YK DELTA BY 3PM
MON...TO THE BERING STRAIT TO MCGRATH BY 3AM TUE...TO THE SOUTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA TO MCGRATH BY 3PM TUE AND TO POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH BY
3AM WED THEN PERSIST IN PLACE. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST WITH THE
FRONT.

A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY AND THEN OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
TONIGHT. WEAK SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE WEAK DOWN SLOPE FLOW
THAT WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION VERY LIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
JUST FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3PM MON.
AFTER THAT THE GFS MOVES THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY NORTHWEST FASTER
THAN THE NAM AND ECMF. PREFER THE FASTER GFS DUE TO THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE AND HIGH DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN
MOVING SHORT WAVES NORTH AT A FAST RATE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

JB JAN 16