Brisk Wind Advisory 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1243 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AS FAR AS FEATURE POSITION...HOWEVER
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA TOO HIGH COMPARED WITH HAND ANALYSIS PLACING CENTRAL PRESSURE
AROUND 968 MB VS MODEL INITIALIZATION OF AROUND 974 MB. BY 18Z THE
MODELED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 971 MB VERIFIED WELL WITH 971
MB HAND ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM REMAINS LOW
HOWEVER SPREAD INCREASES IN THE MID TERM WITH TIMING OF SHORT
WAVES RIDING NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
BLOCKING RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM NEAR BARROW SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
SEATTLE.

A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONDAY AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
AS WELL AS THE LOWER YK DELTA ON SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM SURFACE TO
NEAR 500 MB. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE...A 980 MB
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH A FRONT
STRETCHED NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND WEST TO BE LOCATED OVER BRISTOL BAY AS A 982 MB LOW
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. ONLY
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONET AND WEAK DOWN SLOPE FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS.

SHARP INTERIOR VALLEY INVERSIONS SHOULD WEAKEN TOMORROW AS
WINDS...CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCREASE. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR BUT WILL RAMP UP AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVER NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE INTERIOR. TIGHTEST
GRADIENT EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SUMMITS WHERE
WIND ADVISORIES FOR STRONG WINDS OVER HIGHWAY SUMMITS REMAIN.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND AS WELL AS THE
BERING STRAIT WHERE STRONG WIND HEADLINES REMAIN.

ON THE NORTH SLOPE A 1033 MB HIGH NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ONTO THE NORTH SLOPE WITH FOG AND
FLURRIES AT MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS. STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ON THE WHOLE A LONG WAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF ALASKA AND
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA WITH NO INCURSIONS OF DEEP COLD ON
THE HORIZON FOR ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.
&&

CCC JAN 16