Gale Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

301 
FZAK51 PAFG 022342
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-031445-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 982 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR DEMARCATION POINT THIS EVENING AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND BY SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO CANADA THROUGH SUN EVENING.
A RIDGE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS
THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ225-031445-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-031445-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-031445-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-031445-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO W 10 KT. FOG AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-031445-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 40 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

RF/ET JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS AND VERIFIED
WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD IS MINIMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND IS REASONABLE THROUGH BOTH THE MID TERM AND LONG
TERM. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA REMAINING PARKED
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BUILDING NORTH AND WEST WITH 546
DAM RIDGE AT 500 HPA CENTERED OVER THE YUKON BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DRIFT NORTH AND
WEST TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND REPOSITION AND
WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AS THE UPPER LEVEL OVER RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH AND WEST.

SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING. A 65 KT JET MAX AT 850 MB COMBINED WITH
STRONG DOWNWARD FORCING WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE BREAKING WILL PRODUCE
WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES AND NEAR THE
PASSES OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONES 225 AND 226 WHERE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED. EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS NEAR
DELTA JUNCTION IN ZONE 223 AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONE 227
WHERE ADVISORIES ARE ONGOING. WINDS ALREADY INCREASING AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHINOOK FLOW WILL KEEP
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR DRY.

925 MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SUMMITS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE BLOWING SNOW WILL
LIKELY DROP VISIBILITY HOWEVER ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS NOT EXPECTED
ATTM.

MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
WEST AND NORTH OF MCGRATH AND ALONG THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR ZONES
214...215 AND 216 FOR SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA. LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
EXPECTED AND AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. SNOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
WITH FAVORED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL
TOTALS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
TOTALS IN THESES AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ227.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

CCC JAN 16