Brisk Wind Advisory 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

046 
FZAK52 PAFG 031300
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-040015-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH TO BE 997 MB OFF POINT HOPE AT 9 PM SAT EVENING. IT WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO BRISTOL BAY SAT...THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST OVER
AREAS 200 AND 210 SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-040015-
NORTON SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT WEST OF CAPE DARBY BLOWING
SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 25 KT EAST OF
CAPE DARBY BY MIDNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-040015-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT SE WINDS 20 KT OFF THE YUKON
DELTA. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-040015-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-040015-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT TURNING NW OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.  BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS AND VERIFIED
WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD IS MINIMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND IS REASONABLE THROUGH BOTH THE MID TERM AND LONG
TERM. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA REMAINING PARKED
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BUILDING NORTH AND WEST WITH 546
DAM RIDGE AT 500 HPA CENTERED OVER THE YUKON BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DRIFT NORTH AND
WEST TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND REPOSITION AND
WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AS THE UPPER LEVEL OVER RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH AND WEST.

SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING. A 65 KT JET MAX AT 850 MB COMBINED WITH
STRONG DOWNWARD FORCING WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE BREAKING WILL PRODUCE
WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES AND NEAR THE
PASSES OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONES 225 AND 226 WHERE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED. EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS NEAR
DELTA JUNCTION IN ZONE 223 AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONE 227
WHERE ADVISORIES ARE ONGOING. WINDS ALREADY INCREASING AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHINOOK FLOW WILL KEEP
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR DRY.

925 MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SUMMITS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE BLOWING SNOW WILL
LIKELY DROP VISIBILITY HOWEVER ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS NOT EXPECTED
ATTM.

MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
WEST AND NORTH OF MCGRATH AND ALONG THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR ZONES
214...215 AND 216 FOR SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA. LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
EXPECTED AND AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. SNOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
WITH FAVORED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL
TOTALS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
TOTALS IN THESES AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ227.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

CCC JAN 16