Brisk Wind Advisory 88, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1244 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z MODELS SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LOW
THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS AND REMAINS REASONABLE THROUGH THE MID TERM
AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 483 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO THE BERING STRAIT AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TO BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHEAST OVER BRISTOL BAY TODAY AND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OVER FAIRBANKS WILL WARM FROM AROUND 12 BELOW CELSIUS THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 4 BELOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF ALASKA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 977 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL BUILD NORTH AND EAST OVER BRISTOL BAY TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
AND SNOW CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE OCCLUDED STRETCHING FROM
KOTZEBUE SOUND SOUTHEAST TO JUST WEST OF MCGRATH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO BRISTOL BAY. WINDS OVER INTERIOR SUMMITS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR. WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST CONTINUE TO
CREATE LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST OF ICY CAPE
WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOWING SNOW HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. LOW CEILINGS AND FLURRIES WITH
BLOWING SNOW NOTED AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC FEB 16