Brisk Wind Advisory 86, NWS Fairbanks, AK

816 
FZAK51 PAFG 181107
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
207 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-190215-
207 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES NW TO SE ACROSS THE ARCTIC TO
MACKENZIE BAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO FRI. A 971 MB LOW IN THE GULF
OF ANADYR WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE INLAND. A 971 MB LOW
IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH TO NEAR 60N AND 170E AS
A 965 MB LOW. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE S OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC TO MACKENZIE BAY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ225-190215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
207 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-190215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
207 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-190215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
207 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-190215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
207 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-190215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
207 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

CCC/DA FEB 16

802 
FZAK51 PAFG 182313
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-191500-
213 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND THE NORTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA WILL PERSIST. A 983 MB LOW NEAR ANADYR IN EASTERN
RUSSIA WILL MOVE WEST AND WEAKEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE AREAS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
THU NIGHT AS IT DOES SO...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
THE REMAINS OF AN OLD WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ225-191500-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
213 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-191500-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
213 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-191500-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
213 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-191500-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
213 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-191500-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
213 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT W WINDS 10 KT NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING. FOG. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT.  
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

DJH/LTH FEB 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
104 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS AND THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS.
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE. BEYOND 60 HOURS THEY
BECOME A LITTLE SCATTERED WITH SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST AND CHUKCHI SEA. THERE IS
CONSENSUS IN THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE
ARCTIC COAST. EXTENDED SOLUTIONS REMAIN SCATTERED...SO WILL LEAN
TOWARD HPC AND THE ECMWF AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN
BUILDING THE RIDGE. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL LEAN ON NAM SOLUTION
WHICH OF LATE HAS BEEN A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS...AND MUCH BETTER
IN HANDLING THE WINDS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...487 DAM STACKED LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS EVENING...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO
A 483 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING. A
507 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE TROUGH OVER CHIGNIK THIS
EVENING...MOVING TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A LOW
300 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT. A SKINNY RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ARCTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY MID DAY THURSDAY. A
520 DAM HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY.

SURFACE...STRONG CYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE 961
MB CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OCCLUDED FRONT LIES
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THEN SOUTHEAST TO KODIAK ISLAND TO A 980 MB LOW. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT AS THE LOW OF THE GULF OF ANADYR CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS ABSORBED BY A 970 MB LOW THAT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. RIDGING
OVER CANADA...THE EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL
PERSIST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A MIXED BAG OF WINTER WEATHER
TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING WEST OF DEADHORSE AND AROUND
GALBRAITH LAKE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS...BUT EXPECT SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS TO BE FLOATING
AROUND THE AREA...AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL GOOD
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BRING COLD AIR FROM CANADA
INTO THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRONG CYCLONE IS BRINGING SOME
NASTY WINTER WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT THINGS WILL
CALM DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED OR ARE OCCURRING AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL START
TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AROUND THE LOW
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE WARMER AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER SUMMITS AND ALONG THE TANANA RIVER...AS WELL AS NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THOSE AREAS THAT WERE WINDY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...THEN START BOUNCING BACK ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNLESS
SOME BLACK STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB FEB 16