Brisk Wind Advisory 57, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1120 AM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS WITH LESS SPREAD BOTH
BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM RUN TO RUN THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL
SUITE. THE SPREAD ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AS FAR AS STRENGTH
AND POSITION REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ENTERS INTO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE MID
TERM AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ESPECIALLY ON POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA LOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM POINT
HOPE TO YAKUTAT LINE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN NORTH
SLOPE THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND WILL BRING IN A COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLIPS TO THE EAST MOVING INTO THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHWEST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF TO NEAR BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 960 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 58N AND THE DATE LINE
WITH A FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THEN
SOUTHEAST TO NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST
AND WEAKEN TO 972 MB NEAR 60N AND 175E MONDAY MORNING. THE
ATTENDING FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND WEST BRINGING AND END
TO THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE PRECIP AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY NOON MONDAY. ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
ZONE 213 ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY WITH WINDS AND
SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. PRECIP
HAS CHANGED OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE LOWER YK DELTA
WHERE STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN MANY LOCATIONS HOWEVER LOW STRATUS AND FOG LINGERS
OVER OTHER AREAS OF THE INTERIOR. THE TRICK WILL BE TO FORECAST
WHERE THE STRATUS WILL MOVE TO AS TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY
BETWEEN CLOUD FREE AND CLOUDY AREAS. WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH GUSTY BUT SUB ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE RANGE BUILDS NORTH.
GRADIENT ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL INCREASE AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH
AND NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS OVER INTERIOR SUMMITS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER WITH A LACK OF FRESH SNOW AND RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME A PROBLEM.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC JAN 16