Brisk Wind Advisory 56, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1222 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12 ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODELS SPREAD IS
CONSIDERABLE ESPECIALLY ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF CENTRAL BERING
SEA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING. SPREAD NEVER REALLY RECOVERS IN THE MID AND LONG TERM
WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD NOTED BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND MODEL
RUNS THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN SEWARD
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND
WEST OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY A VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE AND SKINNY RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM WRANGEL ISLAND TO JUNEAU
PARKS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK EFFECTIVELY
LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE LIMITED OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND FOG TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE A
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR CEILINGS AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE
INTERIOR.

ON THE WEST COAST A FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING FROM A 972 MB LOW
JUST NORTH OF ADAK AND STRETCHING NORTH TO NEAR ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET
WITH MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE
213 AS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED AS FRONT STALLS OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN INTERIOR RIDGE AND
LOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.

ARCTIC SLOPE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE STATE BUILDS SOUTH AND
EAST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

CCC JAN 16