Brisk Wind Advisory 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

462 
FZAK52 PAFG 021301
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
401 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-030030-
401 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 960 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE NORTH TO BE INLAND 
SOUTHEAST OF BETHEL AT 3 PM SAT...WEAKENING TO BE 980 MB
NEAR TELLER AT 3 AM SUN. 
$$

PKZ200-030030-
NORTON SOUND-
401 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-030030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
401 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT N 40 KT WEST OF SLEDGE ISLAND.
BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT N WINDS 35 KT FROM THE BERING
STRAIT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND SOUTHWARD. BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-030030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
401 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT BY NOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-030030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
401 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY NOON...EXCEPT NE WINDS 20
KT NEAR SHORE FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON. BLOWING
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH JAN 16

038 
FZAK52 PAFG 022341
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
241 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-031445-
241 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 970 MB LOW CURRENTLY NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 982 MB WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING TO POINT HOPE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOW WILL
THEN BE ABSORBED BY A 965 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC BY SUN AFTERNOON. A RIDGE
WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ200-031445-
NORTON SOUND-
241 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-031445-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
241 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-031445-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
241 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-031445-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
241 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RF/ET JAN 16

046 
FZAK52 PAFG 031300
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-040015-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH TO BE 997 MB OFF POINT HOPE AT 9 PM SAT EVENING. IT WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO BRISTOL BAY SAT...THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST OVER
AREAS 200 AND 210 SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-040015-
NORTON SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT WEST OF CAPE DARBY BLOWING
SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 25 KT EAST OF
CAPE DARBY BY MIDNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-040015-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT SE WINDS 20 KT OFF THE YUKON
DELTA. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-040015-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-040015-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT TURNING NW OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.  BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE INCLUDE...ANOTHER
CHINOOK EVENT FOR THE ALASKA RANGE EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR ZONES 217 AND 218
SATURDAY...STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 213 AND 214... AND THE
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ALASKA. THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT AND MID TERM...WITH INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS DURING THE LONG RANGE.

ALOFT...H500 BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ALASKA
AND WESTERN CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
THEN CONTINUE NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY...REACHING THE
ARCTIC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...DESPITE SOME BRIEF COOLING SUNDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA...WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WARMER THAN NORMAL
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAEFS ENSEMBLE.

SURFACE...A 957 LOW ROUGHLY 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS WILL LIFT NORTH TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE PUSHED EAST
SATURDAY...THEN BUILD BACK WEST OVER EASTERN ALASKA SUNDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG WINDS FOR THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A
STRENGTHENING LEESIDE TROUGH ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA
RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COUPLED WITH A STRONG
MOUNTAIN LEVEL JET AND A FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE SETUP WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALASKA RANGE ZONES
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHERE GUSTS TO AT LEAST 70 MPH WILL
OCCUR. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE
223...SPECIFICALLY FOR THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA SOUTH...WHERE WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
ROTATES NORTH. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE INCHES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL ACROSS ZONES
217 AND 218 WILL BE NEAR OR LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. FOR
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING CHINOOK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH...MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE YUKON DELTA AND LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING...THEN NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE IS A
BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE PUSH OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. EXPECTING
PRECIP TYPE TO BE MAINLY SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMERATURES WARM TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS WELL AS
INLAND PORTIONS OF ZONES 214 AND 215. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA WILL BE SNOW.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE BERING SEA AND STRAIT AS
WELL AS THE YUKON DELTA COAST AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...NOTHING WARRANTING A HIGH WIND
WARNING BUT WILL HEADLINE STRONG WINDS IN ZONES 213 AND 214.

NORTH SLOPE...STRATUS...FOG..AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM
BARROW EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT EXPECTED
FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AS INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

LTH JAN 16