Brisk Wind Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

840 
FZAK51 PAFG 021249
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
349 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-030030-
349 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. A 985 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN MACKENZIE BAY AND
DEMARCATION POINT SAT EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PRESENTLY NORTH OF THE ALASKAN ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTH A BIT BUT REMAIN OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND THE NORTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ225-030030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
349 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY NOON. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-030030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
349 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-030030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
349 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-030030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
349 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-030030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
349 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH JAN 16

301 
FZAK51 PAFG 022342
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-031445-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 982 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR DEMARCATION POINT THIS EVENING AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND BY SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO CANADA THROUGH SUN EVENING.
A RIDGE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS
THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ225-031445-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-031445-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-031445-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-031445-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO W 10 KT. FOG AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-031445-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 40 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

RF/ET JAN 16

738 
FZAK51 PAFG 031252
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
352 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-040030-
352 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 982 MB LOW BETWEEN MACKENZIE BAY AND BANKS ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST. A 985 MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES NORTH TO BE 997 MB OFF POINT HOPE AT 9 PM SAT EVENING. IT
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ225-040030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
352 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. WINDS STRONGEST WELL OFFSHORE. BLOWING
SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-040030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
352 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT OFFSHORE WEST OF ICY
CAPE WITH BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-040030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
352 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-040030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
352 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-040030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
352 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER NOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 40 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE INCLUDE...ANOTHER
CHINOOK EVENT FOR THE ALASKA RANGE EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR ZONES 217 AND 218
SATURDAY...STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 213 AND 214... AND THE
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ALASKA. THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT AND MID TERM...WITH INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS DURING THE LONG RANGE.

ALOFT...H500 BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ALASKA
AND WESTERN CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
THEN CONTINUE NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY...REACHING THE
ARCTIC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...DESPITE SOME BRIEF COOLING SUNDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA...WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WARMER THAN NORMAL
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAEFS ENSEMBLE.

SURFACE...A 957 LOW ROUGHLY 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS WILL LIFT NORTH TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE PUSHED EAST
SATURDAY...THEN BUILD BACK WEST OVER EASTERN ALASKA SUNDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG WINDS FOR THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A
STRENGTHENING LEESIDE TROUGH ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA
RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COUPLED WITH A STRONG
MOUNTAIN LEVEL JET AND A FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE SETUP WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALASKA RANGE ZONES
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHERE GUSTS TO AT LEAST 70 MPH WILL
OCCUR. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE
223...SPECIFICALLY FOR THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA SOUTH...WHERE WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
ROTATES NORTH. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE INCHES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL ACROSS ZONES
217 AND 218 WILL BE NEAR OR LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. FOR
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING CHINOOK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH...MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE YUKON DELTA AND LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING...THEN NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE IS A
BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE PUSH OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. EXPECTING
PRECIP TYPE TO BE MAINLY SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMERATURES WARM TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS WELL AS
INLAND PORTIONS OF ZONES 214 AND 215. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA WILL BE SNOW.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE BERING SEA AND STRAIT AS
WELL AS THE YUKON DELTA COAST AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...NOTHING WARRANTING A HIGH WIND
WARNING BUT WILL HEADLINE STRONG WINDS IN ZONES 213 AND 214.

NORTH SLOPE...STRATUS...FOG..AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM
BARROW EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT EXPECTED
FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AS INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

LTH JAN 16